How much does fatigue matter in NBA betting
Getting a handle on a team’s fatigue level is a key element of any successful NBA betting strategy.
There are times during the season when teams play three games in four nights – and even four games in five nights – making energy level vis-a-vis the opponent a major factor in whether a team covers the spread.
This being the case, it’s important to handicap a team’s schedule to look for spots where they might be out of gas, or on the other hand, where they could be fresh. If you see a team at the tail end of a four-games-in-five-night stretch, they could be ripe for the fade.
It’s not just physical fatigue that matters, but mental fatigue. On an eight-game road swing, for instance, a team might head into the trip with a goal of getting a split SU. If that same team has overperformed, and is heading into the finale at 5-2 SU through seven games away from home, they could be in for a letdown spot in the getaway game. [ NBA odds - see the lines and the schedule ]
NBA players are professionals making tons of money, and let’s face it, they play way too many games to be at their best night-in, night-out. Players have to pace themselves for a grueling season, meaning there’s spots on the betting board where the winning team ATS will be the one that has the freshest legs. It’s rare that a team plays well in every game of a road trip or during an intensive stretch in the schedule.
Remember that it’s not only the poorer teams you should fade in fatigue scenarios. The better teams are often the ones that disappoint ATS because of the vigors of the regular season. A strong team like the Mavericks or the Heat could head into a game as huge favorites at the end of a long road trip, and do just enough to win the game outright.
Winning more NBA bets requires knowledge of how to handicap NBA fatigue. And it takes training to avoid the pitfalls that can damage your bankroll. Read more sports betting 101 tutorials by clicking here.