As a general rule, sportsbooks do well on prop betting. Many bettors just play them for fun, or don’t give them too much thought. Most sportsbooks also spend less time making sure the lines are sharp than they do on more traditional lines (point spreads, moneylines, and Over/Unders). This is because they usually charge extra juice on prop bets, making it easier for them to profit on these types of wagers.
Some people write props off as ‘sucker bets’ due to their popularity among casual bettors and the increased juice, but there are also plenty of bettors that make very good money focusing on props.
One example of a good place to focus on is player props. Most sportsbooks offer some variety of these types of bets, usually in Over/Under form. For example, you might see props like “Will Kobe Bryant score more or less than 32 points?” or “Will Andre Johnson have more or less than six receptions?”
Many bettors are focusing on the team as a whole, since these are team sports. But bettors that focus on individual stats, such as fantasy sports gurus, can often find prop lines that are quite a bit off from the player’s actual projected production.
Sportsbooks don’t have the time, especially on prop bets, to focus a lot of energy on every specific player for which they offer a prop bet. Lines will be set using the basics, such as a player’s average stats and the average stats of the defense or pitcher he is going up against.
But you have the power to dig much deeper; how has this player fared against this team in the past? What is his recent form like? Is he 100% healthy? With hundreds of prop bets available every week, you are sure to find regular discrepancies if you take the time to look.
One discrepancy you will come across is lines appearing too high. Casual bettors like to bet great athletes to go “Over”, and the lines are adjusted accordingly. You can find some projections that are way too high, and have enough value on the Under to overcome the extra juice.