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Capital One Bowl Odds Preview

In the Capital One Bowl, the LSU Tigers take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in a match up of two teams that narrowly missed out in playing in a BCS bowl game. Penn State has a legit offense, while LSU does not and the Tigers may be without featured RB Charles Scott, which may be a reason why Capital One odds makers have the Nittany Lions as 2.5-point favorites.

Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 vs. LSU Tigers O/U 44

Penn State (10-2 5-6 ATS) lost to Ohio State in their season finale, which cost them the Big 10 title and a shot in the Rose Bowl. The Nittany Lions are solid on both sides of the ball and they won their last two games of the season and were 0-1 against teams ranked in the top 25. Another reason that Bovada has Penn State as 2.5-point favorites is the fact that the Nittany Lions have a better rushing offense and there is a good chance of rain in this game.

LSU (9-3 5-6-1 ATS) may have to win this game with their defense, as their offense is not strong to say the least. Besides Scott being questionable two backup RB’s are also injured and out for this game and the Tigers’ passing offense only ranks 99th in the nation. The Tigers lost to both Florida and Alabama after leading in the fourth quarter and those losses killed their BCS chances. The Tigers were 1-2 against ranked opponents this season.

LSU has the nation’s 108th ranked offense and 28th ranked defense and Penn State has the nation’s 36th ranked offense and 8th ranked defense.

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Penn State and their solid offense is led by QB Daryll Clark (2,787 23 TD 10 INT) and his main target is Derek Moye, who averaged over 16 yards per reception this season. Clark has had troubles with interceptions when the Nittany Lions play great defensive teams so he will have to hold onto the ball in this game. The Nittany Lions have the nation’s 38th ranked rushing offense and their main weapon in the backfield is RB Evan Royster (1,104 yds 6 TD), who averaged just under 6 yards per carry this season. LSU’s defense was great in their first eight games, but in this last four game they gave up an average of 393.8 yards per game.

LSU is led by QB Jordan Jefferson (1,964 yds 16 TD 6 INT), who can air it out and has a couple of legit targets, but the Tigers’ strength is their rushing offense. Charles Scott is questionable for this game and if he can’t go the Tigers may have trouble moving the chains on the ground. Penn State's defense ranks 10th in the nation against the run (93.9 ypg) and allows the fourth-fewest points per game (11.8 ppg). It is no surprise that Penn State has a great LB corps and the LSU offensive line has to have a good game and protect Jefferson and open up holes for the running game.

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Capital One Bowl History

In last year’s Capital One Bowl Georgia doubled-up on Michigan State beating them 24-12.

Georgia was favored by 9 points in last year's Capital One Bowl so they covered the spread and the posted total of 57 was not reached.

Recent Capital One Bowl trends courtesy of Bovada

Capital One Bowl History

Underdogs are 4-1 SU past 5 Capital One Bowls
SEC broke 4-game bowl win streak by Big Ten last year