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Odds in Canada’s Favor if Trump Wins

The idea of Donald Trump becoming the next President of the United States was first met by laughs, then sighs, then sadness, then desperation for many Americans.

Trump was once a 150-to-1 longshot to become the next POTUS. To put that into perspective that is the same odds the Cleveland Browns have of winning Super Bowl 51.

A few other things that have roughly the same odds? You being audited by the IRS (150-to-1), you writing a New York Times’ bestseller (220-to-1), and you dating a millionaire (215-to-1).

However, after winning primaries left and right, Donald Trump is now at 2-to-1 odds to be moving into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. That is an odds shift of epic proportions. In sticking with the Browns’ analogy, the team would need to kidnap several Pro Bowl players, force them into a Cleveland jersey, and still probably need some divine intervention to get down to 2-to-1 to win the Super Bowl.

And with The Donald’s odds becoming increasingly better, more and more Americans are looking for their potential way out - and Canada seems like the go-to choice.

The phrase “how can I move to Canada?” spiked almost 1,150 percent after Trump dominated the Super Tuesday results. A Cape Breton man even created a website attempting to recruit American immigrants to the region.

Though Hillary Clinton is still the odds-on favorite to become the next POTUS, we can understand if some Americans are getting their ducks in a row for a different outcome. But is Canada really a better choice than the United States?

There are a few statistical advantages to packing up and moving north of the border. For one, you are much less likely to be murdered in Canada. There is a 1-in-22,222 chance of someone taking your life in the United States compared to just 1-in-70,000 in Canada.

Additionally there are 10 times more people in the United States. So you can breathe, a rather cold, sigh of relief if you live in the True North Strong and Free.

But it’s not just people that are less dangerous. So is the bacon. Canadian Bacon, or back bacon, is substantially healthier for you than the strip bacon most Americans enjoy. Strips of bacon contain nearly four times the amount of calories, trans fat and sodium. So, though the health care is free, you may be much less likely to need it in Canada.

Not to say that America doesn’t have its perks. Food is much cheaper in the U.S., except for potatoes thanks to Prince Edward Island. 

Comparing America to Canada Statistically
CategoryAmericaCanada
Population313 M33 M
Life Expectancy78.3781.38
World Peace Index947
Chances of Being Murdered1-in-22,2221-in-70,000
Bacon Calories151 per 28 grams87 per 47 grams
Average Commuting Time51 minutes65 minutes
Price of 1L of Milk$0.99$1.80
Average Price of Chicken Breasts$7.56$11.23
Number of Katy Perry Concerts (2014)398
Odds of Winning the Lottery1-in-292 Million1-in-14 Million

Food costs roughly 10 percent less in America compared to Canada, which means the odds you can splurge and get a few extra snacks is much greater. Hell, even a few brews are way cheaper in America. You wouldn’t be able to count the number of Canadians that trek across the border to bulk buy the cheaper beers for parties.

And if you want to see the biggest names in music you are going to want to stay in the United States. The top 10 touring artists in the world averaged roughly 10 shows in America for every one in Canada. The 10-to-1 odds to see the likes of Taylor Swift or Justin Timberlake is a tantalizing proposition.

Though, Canada does have Justin Bieber… so that’s something … and Nickelback … nope, just getting worse.

Ultimately these numbers are just a small cross-section of the perks of living in either Canada or the United States. But there is one major statistic Canada has over America: There is a zero percent chance Donald Trump becomes the Prime Minister.

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