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Fiesta Bowl odds update

The Boise State Broncos look for another Fiesta Bowl upset tonight when they square off with the TCU Horned Frogs in a battle of unbeatens.

Back in 2006, Boise State shocked the world in the Fiesta Bowl by knocking off Oklahoma 43-42 as a 7-point favorite.

[ A supplementary Fiesta Bowl preview is at the bottom of this story, check it out for another point of view ]. They’re facing the exact same spread tonight against the Horned Frogs, as the oddsmakers at Bovada currently have TCU down as a 7-point chalk.

Both the Broncos and Horned Frogs have already come up big in tough matchups this season. That’s a must to get through a season undefeated. Boise State knocked off Oregon in their opener, a game more remembered for LaGarrette Blount’s post-game punch. TCU took care of Clemson and Virginia this season and also beat up on Mountain West opponents BYU and Utah.

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The focus of tonight’s matchup has been on Boise State’s insanely productive offense versus the TCU shutdown defense.

The Broncos offense was not only tops in the WAC this season, but they were the No. 1 scoring offense in all of college football. Led by quarterback Kellen Moore (3,325 yards, 39 TDs, 3 INT) the Broncos can move the ball through the air and on the ground and have shredded every defense that has tried to get in their way.

TCU could be the first team to stand up to them this season. The Horned Frog’s stalwart defense was No. 1 in the nation this season, allowing only 233.3 yards per game. They were also ranked No. 3 against the pass and No. 2 against the run. Trying to find a weakness in the TCU defense is nearly impossible.

If the Horned Frogs defense can slow down the Boise State attack the TCU offense should do enough to net TCU a victory. The Frogs offense was the best in the Mountain West this season behind QB Andy Dalton and ranked fourth in scoring offense in the nation.

Boise State TCU odds – Injury updates

One other major concern for Boise State heading into bowl season is injuries. Austin Pettis, who led Boise State in TD catches this season and wideout Tyler Shoemaker were both considered questionable when the bowl schedule was announced. Pettis who fractured his ankle in November has been given the green light to play tonight, but he’s still not 100 percent and will not see the field as much as usual.

Shoemaker, who missed the last three games of the regular season with a hernia is healthier that Pettis, but with also see his time on the field reduced.

The Broncos injury problems don’t end at wide receiver though. Boise State will be without start right tackle Garrett Pendergast, who broke his ankle in practice. That makes a huge hole on the offensive line, which will be filled by freshman Brenel Myers. This will be Myers second career start and his first at right tackle. That could be just the opening the vicious TCU defense needs to lay a pounding on Boise State QB Moore.

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Boise State and TCU are unbeaten but they will not be playing for the college football betting national championship on Monday. That honor goes to Alabama and Texas on Thursday.

Instead, the Broncos and Horned Frogs will play in the Fiesta Bowl. Last year the two teams met in the Poinsettia Bowl and TCU came way with a tough 17-16 win over Boise State. This time the Horned Frogs are considered the better team as they are just about a touchdown favorite in this matchup that can be seen on Fox television.

TCU is a 7.5 point favorite with a total of 55 at {URL=http://www.sbgglobal.com/welcome/11037.html}SBG Global{/URL}.

TCU come into this game with a dominant defense while Boise State has an explosive offense. What is sometimes forgotten is that TCU also has a very potent offense and that could be the difference on Monday.

TCU quarterback Andy Dalton doesn’t get the press of some other top quarterbacks in the nation but he threw 22 TDs this season and had only five interceptions. "He's a leader," TCU coach Gary Patterson said. "It used to be where he asked for people to do things. Now he demands it."

What also makes Dalton so effective is that TCU can run the ball. The Horned Frogs rank fifth in the country in rushing with 256 yards per game. “With TCU, they really don’t want to be a balanced attack,” Boise State defensive end Ryan Winterswyk said.

“They want to run the ball then they’ll throw screens and things like that. Gameplan-wise, it’s pretty simple. We have to stop the run. And then on the screens and things, we have to get out and cover some ground.” Last year the Horned Frogs rushed 51 times for 275 yards against the Broncos and scored two rushing touchdowns.

Last year the Horned Frogs didn’t have the potent passing attack they do this year and that makes them even more dangerous. TCU won 10 games this season by double digits.

Here are the college football betting stats for Monday’s game. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. The Broncos are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 bowl games.

The Horned Frogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

The Under is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 vs. the Mountain West. The Over is 4-1 in the Broncos last 5 games overall. The Over is 4-0 in the Horned Frogs last 4 games overall. The Under is 5-0-1 in the Horned Frogs last 6 Bowl games.

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