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Expert PGA Betting Picks: BMW Championship

Look, predicting a pre-tournament winner in golf isn’t easy. While it’s true sports bettors can find fantastic value, it’s incredibly frustrating when one of your picks doesn’t even make the cut. That’s why I’m here to help.

Every week I’ll highlight three golfers who have a good chance to win the hardware for the upcoming weekend. This week it’s the third leg of the FedExCup playoffs, the BMW Championship.

For a full breakdown of the tournament, check out my betting preview.

Odds courtesy of Bovada.

Justin Thomas (+1100)

I’m not exactly going out on a limb here by backing the red-hot Thomas, but the young gun is simply the hottest player on the planet right now. Even though there are only 70 golfers in the field consisting of the world’s best, I’m confident Thomas can once again rise up on the biggest stage.

Thomas has two wins and a T-6 in his last three starts. That’s insane. He’s also leading the FedExCup playoffs in scrambling and one-putt percentage, and his game is tailored for Conway Farms. The American placed T-13 at this tournament a year ago.

Paul Casey (+2000)

Regular readers of this column know how badly I want Casey to break through, even though it hasn’t happened yet in the 2016-17 PGA Tour campaign. While the Englishman has burned me multiple times when I picked him to win outright pre-tournament, I’m going back to the well again this weekend and taking him at +2000.

Casey has top-fives in five consecutive FedExCup playoff events and has finished T-15 or better in his last six tournaments heading into the BMW Championship. He’s due for a win.

Patrick Cantlay (+4500)

Cantlay is a rookie on the tour, but he’s playing like a seasoned veteran right now. Some bettors are cautious when betting first-year players, however golf is much different than other sports in that regard. All it takes is for a player to get hot at the right time, and Cantlay has all of the qualities to do just that in the third playoff event.

The 25-year-old ranks first in greens hit and bogey avoidance – two of the most important categories in professional golf. Cantlay also ranks third in scrambling and is coming off a T-10 at Glen Oaks and a T-13 at TPC Boston. He’s within striking distance right now, so don’t be surprised if he makes a charge up the leaderboard come Sunday.

For more info, picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out our new podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes, or check us out at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

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