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Breeders’ Cup Distaff: Top Contenders and Betting Trends

The undefeated Songbird has been brilliant throughout her career, winning all 11 starts and by a combined 60 ½ lengths. She will take on her elders for the first time in the Distaff, but we have seen three-year-olds won the race in three of the past five years.

She is the 10/11 early favorite in Breeders’ Cup Distaff wagering.

Beholder already has a couple of Breeders’ Cup wins, taking the 2012 Juvenile Fillies and the 2013 Distaff. She looked unbeatable, reeling off eight wins in a row, but now comes into this race having lost her last three outings.

Stellar Wind, last year’s champion three-year-old filly got the best of her in the Clement Hirsch (G1) and Zenyatta (G1) and sandwiched in between those two losses Beholder ran second to California Chrome. She has won 13 of her 15 career starts over the Santa Anita main track. 

With seven wins in 11 starts, Stellar Wind is a real danger to win this year’s Distaff. She has won four of her five starts over the Santa Anita main track and earned a career top Beyer Speed Figure of 110 in her Zenyatta victory. 

Getting completely overlooked in the race are a couple of talented Grade 1 winners, Forever Unbridled, a smart winner of the Beldame (G1) at Belmont Park in her last outing, and I’m a Chatterbox, winner of the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland in her final prep. 

Land Over Sea ran second in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) back in May but has done little since, losing her last three starts by a combined 39 1/4 lengths. She is trained by Doug O'Neill.

While the boys in the Classic is the marquee race, the Distaff is the race many fans and bettors are looking forward to the most.  

Breeders’ Cup Distaff Betting Trends
  • The top three betting choices last year failed to hit the board, with Stopchargingmaria topping a $155.80 exacta and a $1,419.40 trifecta.
  • She paid $16.20 to win, with the highest price among the four previous Distaff winners coming back at $7.60...
  • 21 of the 32 winners of the Distaff have paid $8.00 or less.
  • Before last year the betting favorite had won 4 of the last 7 editions.
  • Only Royal Delta has wired the field over the past dozen years.
  • Three-year-olds have won 10 times.
  • Three-year-olds have won three of the past five editions.
  • The Spinster (G1) at Keeneland has produced the most Distaff winners with 10, the Beldame (G1) at Belmont Park producing nine.
  • Beholder is the lone runner in the last six years to have her final prep on the west coast.
  • Bayakoa (1989-90) and Royal Delta (2011-12) are the only back to back winners of the Distaff.
  • The second choice in the betting has failed to hit the exacta in each of the past eight years.
  • The third choice in the betting has landed in the exacta in five of the last eight years.
  • Unrivaled Belle is the lone winner in the past nine years that did not come into the race with at least one Grade 1 victory.
  • Stopchargingmaria won last year coming off a 62-day break. The only winner of the Distaff with a longer break was Escena at 71 days in 1998.
  • Trainer Bill Mott has won the Distaff five times.
Breeders’ Cup Distaff Betting Odds

Odds as of November 3 at Bovada

  • 1. Songbird   10/11          
  • 2. Land Over Sea   50/1                 
  • 3. Curalina   14/1             
  • 4. Corona Del Inca (ARG)   50/1                  
  • 5. Stellar Wind   13/4      
  • 6. Forever Unbridled   20/1                         
  • 7. I'm a Chatterbox   14/1                            
  • 8. Beholder   7/2

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Breeders’ Cup for Odds Shark and his full card reports with final selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for both days of action will be available at turfnsport.com where you can also pick up the Turf ‘n’ Sport 2016 Breeders’ Cup Wagering Guide, a 38-page look at the early contenders and betting trends for each race.