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Breeders’ Cup Mile: Top Contenders and Betting Trends

The defending champion Tepin is back, beating the boys last year returning $11.20. She won her next six starts but was finally beaten in her most recent start in a runner-up finish to Photo Call who took the field gate to wire to win the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland. Tepin won the First Lady last year by seven lengths. 

The Mile has had the most repeat winners, a feat accomplished by Miesque, Lure, Da Hoss, Goldikova and Wise Dan. 

One horse to watch is Ironicus, who came storming home to just miss beating Miss Temple City in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland. The Shug McGaughey trainee has been solid all year but will need some luck getting a good trip.

Miss Temple City beat the boys last out in the Shadwell Turf Mile and she may have been ducking Tepin, who ran in the First Lady the same day. This may be a better spot than the Filly & Mare Turf as she has shown she is better at a mile.

Limato won the Qatar Prix de la Foret (G1) in his last outing at Chantilly at seven furlongs. He also won the six-furlong Darley July Cup (G1) at Newmarket. This spot may be better than the Turf Sprint for him.

Another filly to look at is Alice Springs, who ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) last year. She is coming in off a Group 1 win at Newmarket in the Sun Chariot at a mile. She is trained by Aiden O’Brien, who is 0-for-14 in the Mile.  

Midnight Storm will come into the race riding a three-race winning streak for trainer Phil D’Amato. The five-year-old won the Del Mar Mile Handicap (G2) last out and has one Grade 1 victory, the Shoemaker Mile back in June over the Santa Anita turf.

Breeders’ Cup Mile Betting Trends
  • The Mile has been won by females nine times including last year with Tepin. The other eight were all Euro shippers including Goldikova who won three times from 2008-10.
  • Nine three-year-olds have won the race, with only Lure and War Chant U.S.-based runners.
  • Five of the last eight Mile winners paid $5.60 or less but during that span we saw two big bombers in Court Vision ($131.60) in 2011 and Karakontie ($62.00) in 2014.
  • U.S. based runners have fared well in recent years in the Mile, winning four of the last five since Goldikova reeled off her three in a row and lead overall with 19 wins versus 13 from across the pond.
  • At Santa Anita the Euros have taken five with three to the home team.
  • We have not seen a gate-to-wire winner in the race since Lure did it back to back in 1992-93.
  • The key race for the Euros is the Jacques La Marois (G1) which has produced seven winners.
  • The key North American preps are the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) and the Woodbine Mile (G1), each producing six winners.
  • The last two betting favorites ran out of the money, Make Believe fifth last year and Toronado eighth in 2014, both overseas shippers.
  • Before the past two editions, five of the last six winners were the betting favorites, Goldikova and Wise Dan accounting for all five.
Breeders’ Cup mile Betting Odds

Odds as of November 3 at Bovada

  • 1. What a View   33/1     
  • 2. Alice Springs (IRE)   7/2             
  • 3. Spectre (FR)   12/1      
  • 4. Miss Temple City   12/1            
  • 5. Tourist   25/1
  • 6. Photo Call (IRE)   20/1               
  • 7. Dutch Connection (GB)   25/1                 
  • 8. Tepin    5/2     
  • 9. Ironicus   15/2              
  • 10. Limato (IRE)   7/2      
  • 11. Ring Weekend   33/1
  • 12. Hit It a Bomb   33/1  
  • 13. Midnight Storm   20/1             
  • 14. Cougar Mountain (IRE)   25/1

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Breeders’ Cup for OddsShark and his full card reports with final selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for both days of action will be available at turfnsport.com where you can also pick up the Turf ‘n’ Sport 2016 Breeders’ Cup Wagering Guide, a 38-page look at the early contenders and betting trends for each race.

 

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