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The Blueprint: How to Bet on the Boston Red Sox

If you want to win at betting you have to do your homework. Or, you can let me do the homework for you and lay out a blueprint for situations where a bet either for or against a team is worth your hard-earned money.

This week I focus on baseball’s top offensive club, the Boston Red Sox, who appear to be bouncing back in July after an ugly June which saw them go 10-16. Currently firmly entrenched in the playoff race, Boston has been wheeling and dealing in an attempt to shore up a pitching staff that ranks in the bottom half in the American League in ERA, home runs allowed and total bases.

It’s clear that this isn’t the same team that finished dead last in the AL East the past two seasons. It’s also become clear that this team is cashing for bettors in a few specific situations. Here’s a few spots to be on the lookout for with your Red Sox wagers.

Sox are a money runline bet at home

The Red Sox have 30 wins at home this season, 23 of which (77%) have been by two runs or more, making them a great runline bet at Fenway, and the second best home runline bet in the American League. Considering they’ve only been home underdogs five times this season, you have to jump all over the value they offer on the runline at home.

It might not get much better to bet Boston on the runline than in an upcoming four-game series with the Twins. Minnesota currently has 42 losses of two or more runs — third worst in baseball.

They have no compassion for jetlag

We often hear about West Coast teams being at a disadvantage when playing on the East Coast. In some cases, this is nothing but a fallacy, but in the case of the Red Sox hosting West division teams, it’s the cold hard truth.

When hosting teams from the AL and NL West, Boston is 14-5. The Giants and D-backs are the only West Coast teams that will visit Fenway in the second half so be sure to check out the odds and pitching matchups prior to those games.

Porcello is perfect at home

There’s a big money pitcher for bettors in Boston and his name isn’t David Price. His name, as you may have guessed from the header of this section, is Rick Porcello, and the Red Sox are 9-0 in games he’s started at Fenway. The offense comes alive with Porcello on the mound at home, averaging 7.5 runs per game, which is about two runs more than their season average.

And if you’re looking to get greedy, they’re allowing an average of just 2.8 runs in those games, making them an excellent candidate for a runline wager in Porcello home starts.

What else is trending?

Here’s some small sample sizes of situations where Boston is trending heavily in one direction:

Stay away in the last game of a road series — The Red Sox are now on a run that’s seen them lose the last game in six straight road series.

The price is Wright vs the AL East — Steven Wright has won five straight starts vs other AL East opponents.

Bouncing back at home — Boston is 18-11 at home after a loss at home, so back-to-back home losses aren’t exactly a rarity for them, but it’s been almost a month since it’s happened. They’re 3-0 at home after a loss at home over the past few weeks. This could be the start of a growing trend.

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