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Giants Slightly Favored in Game 3 Pitchers' Duel

Wrigley Field was not kind to the Giants in Games 1 and 2 of their NLDS with the Cubs, as the winners of three of the last five World Series are now on the brink of elimination. San Francisco will parlay its home-field advantage tonight with the slight edge in the pitching matchup as postseason legend Madison Bumgarner takes the bump opposite Jake Arrieta, who is no slouch either.

SHARK BITES
  • The favored team is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games in this matchup.
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of the Giants' last 20 games in the playoffs at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Cubs' last five games with a closing total of 6.0 or less.

If the Cubs can get it done against Bumgarner tonight, it’s possible nothing stops them. Mad Bum’s last outing saw him pitch a complete-game, four-hit shutout of the Mets in the wild-card play-in game. That performance lowered his career playoff ERA to 1.94 and rounded his career postseason record to 8-3. Bumgarner didn’t face the Cubs this year but he has limited their current lineup to a batting average of .211 and had an ERA of 2.14 at AT&T Park this season.

Chicago comes into Game 3 tonight as the underdog for just the 13th time this season and whether you’re superstitious or not – I'm looking at you, Cubs fans – that seems like a bad omen. The Cubs won just four games this season when they weren’t the favorites and the favored team has dominated this matchup in recent results.

That said, Jake Arrieta (18-8, 3.10 ERA) gives his team a chance to win every time he steps onto the mound. His 3.66 career postseason ERA isn’t quite as pristine as Bumgarner’s but it’s still damn good. The 2015 NL Cy Young winner allowed just one run over seven innings in his only start at AT&T this year and has limited Giants batters to a .200 average.

I think it’s safe to say we have a pitchers’ duel on our hands tonight.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Sportsbooks such as MyBookie had set the San Francisco Giants as -123 favorites on the moneyline for this contest. The over under was hovering near 6 for betting fans hoping to turn a profit on totals at Bovada.

Handicapping models based on recent betting stats and prediction formulas pick a 3.8-1.7 win for the Giants. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming MLB matchups here.

Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The San Francisco Giants bring a 88-77 record to the battle against the 105-58 Cubs. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and San Francisco vs Chicago injuries news.

This game puts the San Francisco Giants, most recently No. 10 in Odds Shark MLB Power Rankings, up against the Chicago Cubs, who rate a No. 1 in the latest survey.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up San Francisco Giants No. 19 ranked offense (4.36 runs per game) against a Chicago Cubs defense and pitching staff that sits at No. 1 at 3.4 runs allowed per game. The San Francisco Giants have been averaging 8.81 hits per game, more than the Chicago Cubs have managed so far this season (8.65 hits on average).

Pitching and defensive stats are important baseball handicapping betting factors and San Francisco has the No. 4-ranked defense. In the other dugout, the Cubs own the No. 1 mark in runs allowed.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

 

Betting Trends
  • Chi Cubs is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
  • Chi Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 9 games
  • Chi Cubs is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
  • San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
  • San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
  • San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
  • San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Chicago at San Francisco, Tuesday, October 11th

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