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Home Run Derby Betting Odds

Marlins Park is set to become a launch pad for Major League Baseball’s best sluggers when it hosts the Home Run Derby this coming Monday. For bettors and sports fans alike, the derby is a beacon of light that offers a reprieve from the monotony of the dog days of summer and this year’s edition is no exception.

The electrifying event will be headlined by two rookie sensations as well as last year’s champ and hometown hero Giancarlo Stanton. He and Aaron Judge are the favorites to win the derby with everyone else on the list sitting well back of the two bombers.

Here’s a brief analysis of all the competitors and what their odds are to win the 2017 Home Run Derby:

All odds courtesy of Bovada

Giancarlo Stanton:

Smashing the previous record for home runs at the derby, Stanton went a little overkill last year by launching 62 balls over the fence at Petco Park to take the title. Every time he connected with a ball the crowd audibly gasped at the sheer power exuded by the slugger and with this year’s event taking place in front of Stanton’s home crowd, expect the atmosphere to be that much better.

The Marlins right-fielder had the 20 hardest-hit balls of the night in 2016 but should expect a stiffer challenge in that department from the most powerful hitter in baseball.

Stanton's Stats
Odds to Win2017 Home RunsAverage HR Distance
+20026409 Feet
2017 Home Run Derby: Will GianCarlo Stanton Reach the Finals

Odds as of July 10 Bovada

  • Yes -140
  • No +110

Aaron Judge:

As the big-league leader in home runs, Aaron Judge is expected to do big things in his first derby. The six-foot-seven-inch right-fielder has converted close to 40 percent of his fly balls into home runs in his first full season as a big-leaguer and is on pace to destroy Mark McGwire’s record for HRs as a rookie.

Judge seems like the perfect fit for this competition. His enormous frame leads to easy power and with a .329 average through 301 at-bats this season, he can just flat out hit the baseball. 

If Judge and Stanton meet in the final of the derby like they’re favored to do, duck and cover – these two monsters will be hitting some serious bombs.

Judge's Stats
Odds to Win2017 Home RunsAverage HR Distance
+20030416 Feet
2017 Home Run Derby: Will Aaron Judge Reach the Finals

Odds as of July 10 Bovada

  • Yes -140
  • No +110

Cody Bellinger:

The NL’s counterpunch to Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger is writing a story similar to the one being not so delicately penned by the Bronx Bomber. Four years Judge’s junior, the Dodgers left-fielder broke Gary Sanchez’s record by becoming the fastest player in major-league history to reach 21 home runs.

Bellinger is lined up to meet Judge in the semifinals of what is gearing up to be an explosive must-watch event.

Bellinger's Stats
Odds to Win2017 Home RunsAverage HR Distance
+65025403 Feet
2017 Home Run Derby: Will Cody Bellinger Reach the Finals

Odds as of July 10 Bovada

  • Yes +250
  • No -325

Miguel Sano:

This Dominican powerhouse is a pure stinky slugger. He’s had trouble with strikeouts during his three-year career but with a .276 average in 82 games in 2017, he’s working around the K’s and should be the dark horse in this year’s derby. Sano has unbelievable pull power when he makes solid contact so expect him to put on a show in this format.

Sano's Stats
Odds to Win2017 Home RunsAverage HR Distance
+70021412 Feet
2017 Home Run Derby: Will Miguel Sano Reach the Finals

Odds as of July 10 Bovada

  • Yes +300
  • No -400

Mike Moustakas:

Possibly the best hitter in the competition, Moustakas might not have the tools to keep up with the likes of Judge, Stanton, Bellinger and Sano in this one. The Royal has the shortest average home run distance of all the contestants and his +1400 odds don’t inspire confidence either.

Moustakas' Stats
Odds to Win2017 Home RunsAverage HR Distance
+140025398 Feet
2017 Home Run Derby: Will Mike Moustakas Reach the Finals

Odds as of July 10 Bovada

  • Yes +450
  • No -650

Gary Sanchez:

Did I just say someone with long odds couldn’t win this thing? I take it back. Gary Sanchez has been tearing the leather off the baseball since he lit the league on fire last season with 20 home runs in his first 71 games and he doesn’t just hit them out, he sends them packing with no return ticket. 

Although he’s hit just 13 this year in limited action, the Yankees catcher has what it takes to challenge the top guys. He and Kendrys Morales are the only two players in baseball with a minimum of 10 home runs to have their shots average a distance of over 421 feet.

Sanchez' Stats
Odds to Win2017 Home RunsAverage HR Distance
+120013422 Feet
2017 Home Run Derby: Will Gary sanchez Reach the Finals

Odds as of July 10 Bovada

  • Yes +500
  • No -800

Justin Bour:

Another hometown guy, Bour might be another one who’s outmatched in this contest. He faces the unenviable task of taking on Aaron Judge in the first round of what would be a massive upset if he were able to move on. What does the Magic 8 Ball say? Outcome not likely.

Bour's Stats
Odds to Win2017 Home RunsAverage HR Distance
+140020400 Feet
2017 Home Run Derby: Will Justin Bour Reach the Finals

Odds as of July 10 Bovada

  • Yes +550
  • No -900

Charlie Blackmon:

Although his stats are a little padded by Coors Field, Blackmon could win this by sheer will. The Rockie is one of the most competitive and serious men in baseball and I doubt he’s going to have any fun at this event if he doesn’t win the whole damn thing. He will, however, probably have to beat Bellinger, Judge and Stanton if he’s to realize his Home Run Derby aspirations – +1400 is about right.

Blackmon's Stats
Odds to Win2017 Home RunsAverage HR Distance
+140021413 Feet
2017 Home Run Derby: Will Charlie Blackmon Reach the Finals

Odds as of July 10 Bovada

  • Yes +500
  • No -800
2017 Home Run Derby: Outright Winner Odds

Odds as of July 10 Bovada

  • Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) +200
  • Aaron Judge (NYY) +200
  • Cody Bellinger (LAD) +650
  • Miguel Sano (MIN) +700
  • Mike Moustakas (KC) +1400
  • Gary Sanchez (NYY) +1200
  • Justin Bour (MIA) +1400
  • Charlie Blackmon (COL) +1400
2017 Home Run Derby: To hit the longest home Run in Round 1

Odds as of July 10 Bovada

  • Aaron Judge (NYY) +160
  • Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) +200
  • Charlie Blackmon (COL) +550
  • Miguel Sano (MIN) +600
  • Mike Moustakas (KC) +1000
  • Cody Bellinger (LAD) +1000
  • Gary Sanchez (NYY) +1600
  • Justin Bour (MIA) +1600
2017 Home Run Derby: Who Will hit the most home runs in Round 1

Odds as of July 10 Bovada

  • Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) -350
  • Gary Sanchez (NYY) +275
  • Mike Moustakas (KC) +145
  • Miguel Sano (MIN) -175
  • Aaron Judge (NYY) -325
  • Justin Bour (MIA) +250
  • Cody Bellinger (LAD) -200
  • Charlie Blackmon (COL) +160

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