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Over Looming With O's Hot

The Orioles shelled the Astros last night for 13 runs in their series opener and should have a good chance to do the same tonight against a pitcher who has seriously regressed to the mean.

SHARK BITES
  • The Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 games on Friday.
  • The Orioles are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games after a win.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Orioles' last 14 games at home.

Collin McHugh is far from the 19-game winner he was a year ago and has gotten progressively worse since a 2014 season that saw him post a 2.73 ERA in 25 starts. He owns a bloated 4.70 ERA this year and has allowed batters to hit a .306 average off him in 12 road starts. McHugh has seen this Orioles lineup once this year and was pelted for eight hits and three runs over just 5.1 innings.

McHugh’s counterpart, Wade Miley, has been just as bad, if not worse. Miley (7-10, 5.23 ERA) was taken to task by the Giants his last time up and gave up six earned runs while lasting just 4.1 innings. This Astros' lineup has enjoyed playing Miley and own a combined .316 batting average against the former Mariner.

This one is by no means a pitching duel, but baseball is weird. One will probably throw a no-hitter.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The visiting Houston Astros were 105 moneyline underdogs in this one earlier in the day at most online sportsbooks including Bovada. The total was 9 at Bet365 for those preferring over under betting.

Handicapping models based on recent betting stats and prediction formulas pick a 5.4-3.8 win for the Orioles. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming MLB matchups here.

Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Baltimore Orioles bring a 67-53 record to the battle against the 61-60 Astros. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Baltimore vs Houston injuries news.

The Baltimore Orioles sit at No. 17 in the current MLB power poll here at Odds Shark, while the Houston Astros sit at No. 26 on the same chart.

Statistical Matchup

Scoring stats point to some edges in this matchup. The game features the Baltimore Orioles No. 8-ranked scoring average of 4.72 runs per game, against a Houston Astros offense rated No. 18 and scoring 4.44 runs per game. The Orioles have averaged 9.02 hits per game to date this season, more than the Astros hitters have managed (8.42 per nine innings).

Pitching and defensive stats are important baseball handicapping betting factors and Baltimore has the No. 15-ranked defense. In the other dugout, the Astros own the No. 9 mark in runs allowed.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Houston didn't get the job done in their last match, falling 13-5 to Baltimore on Thursday at Camden Yards.

Betting Trends
  • Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
  • Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
  • Baltimore is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Baltimore's last 14 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Houston at Baltimore, Saturday, August 20th

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