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Mets at Braves MLB Pick

NL East rivals get set to battle in a three-game series at Turner Field, as the Braves hold a 6.5-game lead on tonight’s opponent.

New York Mets (53-52) at Atlanta Braves (59-45): Underdog value on Mets at +130

Bovada opened Atlanta as a -150 favorite and New York checks in as a +130 underdog. The total is 7.

New York hit rock bottom on Sunday afternoon, suffering a 14-1 loss to the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks and have now lost 15 of their last 21 games. New York is a solid 33-19 at home this season, but now travel on the road, where they are 19-32 this year and 89-124 the last three seasons.

The lineup has hit just 210 and scored 54 runs in 17 games since the All-Star break and its hard to imagine things are going to improve with the club hitting .239 away from Citi Field.

Mets starting pitcher Johan Santana steps onto the hill with a 8-5 record and 3.11 ERA in 22 starts and is coming off a start in which he allowed a season-high 13 hits. He beat the Braves in his last outing against them on July 11, going seven shutout innings and allowing just five hits. The lefthander is 1-2 with a 1.93 ERA in four starts at Atlanta’s ball park. Atlanta comes home after a disappointing 3-6 road trip, but things are likely to improve with the club touting a fantastic 34-13 home record.

The Braves are also a solid 8-2 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 with the total being 5-5 O/U in those contests. The offense has managed to average just 3.7 runs and hit for a combined .244 average against divisional opponents, leading to an even 19-19 record versus the NL East. New York’s 17-36 record on the road versus winning ball clubs leaves a lot to be desired when matched up with an Atlanta team that’s 11-3 when facing winners at Turner Field.

The under is a combined 8-0 in Hudson and Santana’s last four starts against divisional opponents. The under is also 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two rivals. The lines maker has made this total low enough that a play on the over is certainly an option, especially when considering the Braves have had just two games this year at home when the total was 7 or less (1-1 O/U).