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2016 MLB Midseason Betting Overview

As part of our comprehensive breakdown of the MLB at the unofficial midway point, we at OddsShark look back at the first half to examine which teams and players were the best and worst bets.

From your Spring Training prop busts to the best OVER teams in the MLB, here is your look at all the best and worst betting angles from the first half of the MLB season.

Best OVER and UNDER Teams

The Minnesota Twins are not good – which I’m sure you already know – but they have been a profitable bet for totals bettors. Minny has gone OVER in 61.3% of their games at the All-Star Break, which is the highest percentage in the MLB. This is largely thanks to a dreadful pitching staff that ranks in the bottom five in ERA, WHIP and opponent batting average.

Finding a consistent UNDER play has been a little more challenging so far this season, but the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays have been the best of the best in that regard. Both the Dodgers and Jays have gone UNDER in 57.1% of their games this season. Of those two, the Dodgers are the team I see being a continued success for UNDER bettors. LA has a better-than-average pitching staff and a mediocre – at best – offense, which means that there could be plenty of low-scoring games after the All-Star Break.

Top OVER Teams
  • Twins: 54-29-5
  • Pirates: 54-33-2
  • Reds: 50-32-7
  • Tigers: 49-36-4
  • Red Sox: 47-35-5
Top UNDER Teams
  • Dodgers: 36-52-3
  • Blue Jays: 35-52-4
  • Mets: 39-47-2
  • Royals: 38-46-4
  • Astros: 39-46-4

Biggest Movers in World Series Futures

Every season has their fair share of shockers and disappointments that emerge between the first pitch and the All-Star Break – and this season is no different. Though there have been some teams that have made minor climbs up the futures board, there have been several massive drops, as teams have failed to meet Spring Training expectations.

The biggest riser in the World Series futures market has been the Baltimore Orioles. The season started with some modest expectations considering the stiff competition in the AL East, but the O’s phenomenal bats have them sitting with a two-game lead in the division.

Several teams have made huge plunges with the Los Angeles Angels and the Arizona Diamondbacks likely hurting bettors the most. The Halos were given some pretty solid odds in a tough AL West, but their awful rotation has completely sunk them. The D-backs were given a ton of credit following huge acquisitions during the offseason, but an injury to A.J. Pollock coupled with some mediocre play from Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller has fans depressed in the desert.

*The tables below exclude teams with odds at +100,000 or worse at the All-Star Break.

Falling World Series Odds
TeamChangeOpeningAt All-Star Break
Angels+44000+4000+50000
Rays+44000+4000+50000
Athletics+43400+6600+50000
Diamondbacks+27500+2500+30000
Rising World Series Odds
TeamChangeOpeningAt All-Star Break
Orioles-3600+5000+1400
Rangers-1500+2200+700
Indians-1250+2000+750
Nationals-900+1800+900

Best And Worst Cy Young Bets From Preseason

This MLB season has seen some of the best pitchers in the game struggle while unheralded veterans have come out of nowhere to be legit contenders. The odds at the start of the year were a who's who of potential aces, but the shortlist looks much different at the ASG.

Hands down the best value for AL pitchers you could’ve had at the start of the season was Chris Sale. Sale – who is now the odds-on favorite to win the AL Cy Young – opened the year at +250 to win the hardware.

On the other side of that is David Price. The $200-million man was acquired in the offseason to be the ace for the Boston Red Sox and was pegged as a +300 to win the AL Cy Young. However, Price has been struggling with his new team and has a 4.34 ERA at the All-Star Break.

For straight-up value, nobody is looking better than Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg opened the season at +1400 to win the NL Cy Young, but has rocketed up to +425 come the midway point of the season.

If you thought this was the year Matt Harvey took the league by storm then you certainly lost a bit of your bank account. ‘The Dark Knight’ opened the season at +1000 to win the Cy Young – the same odds as Madison Bumgarner and Max Scherzer – but struggled all year before opting for season-ending surgery.

Best Preseason Bets To Win AL Cy Young
PlayerERAWAROpeningOdds At ASG
Chris Sale3.382.7+250-125
Danny Salazar2.753.8+2500+225
Worst Preseason Bets To Win AL Cy Young
PlayerERAWAROpeningOdds At ASG
David Price4.341.6+300OTB
Corey Kluber3.612.6+350OTB
Best Preseason Bets To Win NL Cy Young
PlayerERAWAROpeningOdds At ASG
Clayton Kershaw1.794.7+175+110
Stephen Strasburg2.623.8+1400+425
Worst Preseason Bets To Win NL Cy Young
PlayerERAWAROpeningOdds At ASG
Matt Harvey4.860.1+1000OTB
Zack Greinke3.622.5+2000OTB

Best MVP Bets From Preseason

Unless you have a gut instinct or a crystal ball, predicting who is going to be winning the MVP in either league during Spring Training isn’t likely to happen. But – if you somehow can predict the future – there was tons of value to be had.

The top of the AL MVP board has the familiar Mike Trout and Josh Donaldson sitting at one and two. After them comes Jose Altuve. The Astros’ diminutive infielder is averaging .341 with 51 RBIs through the first half of the season – not to mention the second best fielding percentage among second basemen in the AL.

There was also tons of value on Robinson Cano if you predicted a return to form after a down year last season. Cano is batting .313 with 21 home runs and 58 RBIs at the break and is all the way down to +600 to win the MVP – after opening the season at +4000. 

Unlike the AL, the NL MVP scene looks quite different at the top. Kris Bryant is now the favorite after opening the season fifth on the board, as the youngster ranks in the top 10 in pretty much every major batting category in the league while posting the fourth-best WAR.

Best Preseason Bets To Win AL MVP
PlayerBAWAROpeningOdds At ASG
Jose Altuve.3414.7+2500+500
Robinson Cano3.134.6+4000+600
Best Preseason Bets To Win NL MVP
PlayerBAWAROpeningOdds At ASG
Kris Bryant.2864.6+900+225
Nolan Arenado.2873.9+2000+300

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