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Underdogs Cleaning Up in the National League

Handicapping the start of a Major League Baseball season can be a little tricky and if you’re not careful, you can do serious damage to your bankroll in a very short period of time. I’m sure Blue Jays backers know exactly what I’m talking about. However, if you utilize the common sense approach of simply paying attention to the lines and results, you can really cash in.

I’ve been paying attention the past few weeks and a spot I’m always on the lookout for is good home underdog value, which I’ve been finding lots of. After a few days of successfully betting home underdogs, I wanted to see if this was a league-wide trend or just a few days of luck resulting in profits I’ll put toward brand-name grooming products.

Turns out, underdogs, both home and away, in the National League have been on an absolute tear, posting a record of 70-78 which translates to a profit of $1304.52 (based on $100 bets). Digging deeper into the National League underdog trend, home dogs actually have a winning record of 30-29, good enough for a profit of $777.48.

Here’s how the two leagues compare:

MLB Underdog Profits
LeagueUnderdog RecordHome Underdog Record
National League70-78 ($1562.98)30-29 ($777.48)
American League53-79 (-$1304.52)22-24 ($63.28)

profits based on $100 bets

So, are these numbers sustainable? Probably not. Oddsmakers will adjust and teams will start to show their true colors, but that doesn’t mean it’s too late to get in on the trend before it dries up. You’ll want to zero in on teams like the Rockies and Diamondbacks when you see they’re plus money as they’ve already combined to go 17-9 as underdogs. NL clubs to steer clear of when tabbed as a favorite include the Giants and Mets, who have combined to go just 11-18 as the favorite.

Don’t just bet this blindly, though. Take a few minutes to analyze the pitching matchup — how have the starting pitchers fared recently, home/away splits, history vs team he’s facing. When betting home underdogs, consider the situation the visitor is in — are they in the middle or at the end of a long road trip? If it’s the first game of a series, how long did they travel to get there? And, of course, are any key players out of the lineup?

Good luck betting the dogs this season and make sure to get ’em while they’re hot!

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