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Which MLB Teams are Still in the Playoff Hunt

The all-star break is a good time for teams to reflect and assess what kind of chances they realistically have of making the playoffs. This will determine what the rest of their seasons will look like. Will they go after a big name before the trade deadline? Will they trade away a big name for prospects and concede defeat? The options are limitless and OddsShark has broken done some numbers to get a picture of where teams might finish and whether they will be buyers or sellers heading into the August 1 deadline.

If your team is leading their division this year, take a deeper look before you bet on them to win the division or to even make the playoffs. Since the playoff format changed four years ago, only 66.67% of teams who led their divisions heading into the all-star break, went on to make the playoffs.

Conversely, if your team is sitting five to 10 games back of the division leader, don’t count them out. When using the same criteria but with teams who are five to 10 games back at the all-star break, 15.6% have come back to make the playoffs.

The example I like to reference is the 2015 Toronto Blue Jays. Last year, they sat eight games out of a playoff spot but traded for Troy Tulowitzki and David Price and finished the season 3.5 games up on the Orioles to win the AL East.

No teams, however, that have been more than 10 games back at the all-star break have come back to make the playoffs.

Based on these percentages, teams to look out for are the Yankees, Tigers, White Sox, Astros, Mariners, Pirates, Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets and Marlins. The Pirates are my favorite second half team. They are +1800 to win the division and are just 7.5 games back. The Cubs are seriously overrated and the Bucs have underachieved -- look for them to make a run.

Here's a breakdown of all the divisions and where teams currently sit:

AL East at the all-star break
TeamRecordGames BackOdds to win Division
Orioles51-36-+170
Jays51-402.0+170
Red Sox49-382.0+170
Yankees44-445.5+2500
Rays34-5415.5N/A

Odds as of July 14 at Bovada

AL Central at the all-star break
TeamRecordGames BackOdds to win Division
Indians52-36--400
Tigers46-436.5+750
White Sox45-437.0+750
Royals45-437.0+750
Twins32-5620.0N/A

Odds as of July 14 at Bovada

AL West at the all-star break
TeamRecordGames BackOdds to win Division
Rangers54-36--400
Astros48-415.5+325
Mariners45-448.5+1400
Athletics38-4115.5N/A
Angels37-5216.5N/A

Odds as of July 14 at Bovada

nl east at the all-star break
TeamRecordGames BackOdds to win Division
Nationals54-36--400
Mets47-416.0+400
Marlins47-416.0+800
Phillies42-4812.0N/A
Braves31-5822.5N/A

Odds as of July 14 at Bovada

NL Central at the all-star break
TeamRecordGames BackOdds to win Division
Cubs53-35--1600
Cardinals46-427.0+1200
Pirates46-437.5+1800
Brewers38-4914.5N/A
Reds32-5721.5N/A

Odds as of July 14 at BetOnline

NL WEST at the all-star break
TeamRecordGames BackOdds to win Division
Giants57-33--700
Dodgers51-406.5+400
Rockies40-4816.0N/A
Padres38-5118.5N/A
Diamondbacks38-5219.0N/A

Odds as of July 14 at Bovada

For a reference of how teams performed last year after the all-star break, check out the chart below:

2015 Records after the all-star break
  • Blue Jays 48-23 (67.6%)
  • Cubs 50-25 (66.7%)
  • Rangers 46-28 (62.2%)
  • Pirates 45-29 (60.8%)
  • Cardinals 44-29 (60.3%)
  • Mets 43-30 (58.9%)
  • Dodgers 41-31 (56.9%)
  • Royals 43-33 (56.6%)
  • Indians 39-34 (53.4%)
  • Yankees 39-35 (52.7%)
  • Astros 37-34 (52.1%)
  • Giants 38-35 (52.1%)
  • Orioles 37-37 (50.0%)
  • Angels 37-37 (50.0%)
  • Diamondbacks 37-38 (49.3%)
  • Red Sox 36-37 (49.3%)
  • Mariners 35-38 (47.9%)
  • Rays 34-37 (47.9%)
  • Phillies 34-37 (47.9%)
  • Nationals 35-40 (46.7%)
  • Twins 34-39 (46.6%)
  • White Sox 35-41 (46.1%)
  • Padres 33-39 (45.8%)
  • Marlins 33-40 (45.2%)
  • Brewers 30-42 (41.7%)
  • Tigers 30-43 (41.1%)
  • Rockies 29-45 (39.2%)
  • Athletics 27-44 (38.0%)
  • Braves 25-48 (34.2%)
  • Reds 25-51 (32.9%)

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