Game 7 NBA Finals Odds Preview

The past five Game 7s in the NBA Finals have been won by the home team and Miami is favored to become the sixth on Thursday.

The Heat were favored by 6 points in early wagering and history suggests that number will be bet down to -5.5 or lower before gametime. And after Game 6's crazy finish, where the Spurs blew a late lead, you have to wonder if the Heat will win Game 7 in a rout.

Miami's run of 12 straight covers in games following a loss ended Tuesday, but they still won and forced Game 7. Since the Washington Bullets in 1978, no road team has won a Game 7 in the NBA Finals. [ See all Game 7 prop odds ]

Overall, home teams win in Game 7 in the playoffs. Including all playoff rounds since 2008, the hosts are 12-4 SU. (see chart below)

Last Road Team Winner in bold

2010 - Lakers 83-79 vs Boston (spread -6.5)

2005 - Spurs 81-74 vs Detroit (spread -4)

1994 - Rockets 90-84 vs New York (spread -4.5)

1988 - Lakers 108-105 vs Detroit

1984 - Celtics 111-102 vs Los Angeles

1978 - Washington 105-99 @ Seattle

(Note: follow us on Twitter for line updates and injuries news).

View San Antonio vs Miami Odds and Stats.

Betting Line:
The Spurs were listed as 6-point underdogs at many online sportsbooks (including Sportsbook.ag), with the total listed at 190.5 earlier in the day (check SportBet for updates during the day).

NBA Playoff Game 7s since 2008:

Year  RD    Date        Winner *road        Score    Loser
2008 (1)    04-May-08    Boston Celtics         99–65    Atlanta Hawks             
2008 (2)    18-May-08    Boston Celtics         97–92    Cleveland Cavaliers             
2008 (3)    19-May-08    San Antonio Spurs*    91–82    New Orleans Hornets             
2009 (1)    02-May-09    Boston Celtics         109–99    Chicago Bulls            
2009 (2)    03-May-09    Atlanta Hawks         91–78    Miami Heat             
2009 (3)    17-May-09    Los Angeles Lakers    89–70    Houston Rockets         
2009 (4)    17-May-09    Orlando Magic*        101–82    Boston Celtics             
2010 (1)    02-May-10    Atlanta Hawks         95–74    Milwaukee Bucks            
2010 (2)    17-Jun-10    Los Angeles Lakers    83–79    Boston Celtics             
2011 (1)    15-May-11    Oklahoma City Thunder    105–90    Memphis Grizzlies         
2012 (1)    12-May-12    Los Angeles Lakers     96–87    Denver Nuggets             
2012 (2)    13-May-12    Los Angeles Clippers*    82–72    Memphis Grizzlies     
2012 (3)    26-May-12    Boston Celtics         85–75    Philadelphia 76ers            
2012 (4)    09-Jun-12    Miami Heat         101–88    Boston Celtics         
2013 (1)    04-May-13    Chicago Bulls*         99–93    Brooklyn Nets             
2013 (2)    04-Jun-13    Miami Heat        99–76    Indiana Pacers         
2013 (3)    20-Jun-13    Miami Heat         ?    San Antonio Spurs           
Power Rankings / Prediction:
This game matches up the No. 6 (Heat) and the No. 3 (Spurs) teams in the league, according to our current NBA Power Rankings at Odds Shark. A 107-106 result in favor of the Heat is predicted by handicapping models.

ADVERTISEMENT:

How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Miami's No. 5-ranked offense (102.9 PPG) against a Spurs defense that ranks No. 11 at 96.6 PPG. The Heat have averaged 49.6% from the field per game, more than the Spurs have managed so far this season (48.1% on average).

Defensively, the Spurs feature the league's No. 12-rated defense on the road, giving up 98.9 points per game. Miami, meanwhile, comes in at No. 4 in the league in scoring at home.

Last time out for San Antonio, they were a 103-100 loser as they battled the Heat on the road. The Spurs covered in the match as a 6.5-point underdog, while 203 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors. The Spurs got a terrific 30-point performance from Tim Duncan but Miami handed them a 103-100 defeat on Tuesday at AmericanAirlines Arena.

San Antonio Spurs Trends:
When playing on Thursday are 8-2
After playing Miami are 5-5
After a loss are 8-2

Miami Heat Trends:
When playing on Thursday are 6-4
After playing San Antonio are 5-5
After a win are 4-6

 

A few Spurs at Heat trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of San Antonio's last 20 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of San Antonio's last 19 games on the road
Miami is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Miami's last 20 games when playing at home against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games