The Milwaukee Bucks upset the Miami Heat on the NBA betting lines when those teams last met back in December. LeBron James and company will be gunning for some revenge on Friday night.
The Bucks beat the Heat 104-85 as a 4.5-point home underdog on the NBA odds at the sportsbooks in their December 29 matchup, making them 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS against Miami on the season. Milwaukee has an ATS victory in six of its last seven games against the Heat.
(Note: follow us on Twitter for line updates and injuries news). The Bucks currently sports a record of 32-31, and have posted a corresponding betting slate of 29-33-1 ATS. The Heat are 49-14 and 33-30 ATS. Betting totals have seen the Bucks post a 33-30 OVER/UNDER record this season, while the Heat have gone 32-31 against the number.
Those backing the visitors in this one found the Heat listed as 6-point favorites earlier at TopBet. Meanwhile, the OVER/UNDER line for this game was set at 203 at but may have moved since opening.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
This game matches up the No. 13 (Bucks) and the No. 7 (Heat) teams in the league, according to our current NBA Power Rankings at Odds Shark. A 107-98 result in favor of the Heat is predicted by handicapping models.
How They Match Up:
The game also pits Milwaukee's No. 12-ranked offense, averaging 98.9 PPG, against a Heat defense that ranks No. 8 at 95.9 PPG. The Bucks field goal percentage has averaged 43.9% so far, less than the Heat shooters have achieved on the year, 49.5% per game.
Defensively, the Heat feature the league's No. 6-rated defense on the road, giving up 94.8 points per game. Milwaukee, meanwhile, comes in at No. 14 in the league in scoring at home.
The Heat were a 98-94 winner in their most recent outing on the road against the 76ers. They failed to cover the 8-point spread as favorites, while the total score (192) made winners of UNDER bettors. LeBron James went off for 27 points and added 7 rebounds leading Miami over Philadelphia, 98-94, on Wednesday at Wells Fargo Center.
Milwaukee lost its last outing, a 106-93 result against the Wizards on March 13. The Bucks failed to cover in that game as a 2-point favorite, while the 199 combined points took the game OVER the total. Monta Ellis scored 26 points for Milwaukee on Wednesday, but the Wizards managed a 106-93 victory over the Bucks at Verizon Center.
Miami Heat Trends:
When playing on Friday are 7-3
Before playing Toronto are 7-3
After playing Philadelphia are 8-2
After a win are 10-0
Milwaukee Bucks Trends:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
Before playing Orlando are 4-6
After playing Washington are 5-5
After a loss are 4-6
A few Heat at Bucks trends to consider:
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Miami's last 20 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Milwaukee's last 20 games when playing at home against Miami
Milwaukee is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Miami at Toronto, Sunday, March 17
Milwaukee home to Orlando, Sunday, March 17