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The Golden State Warriors Betting Hangover

Durant Curry Warriors

Betting against the opponent of the Golden State Warriors is a popular play but it hasn’t been an incredibly profitable one as the team is an average 9-8-1 ATS through its first 18 games this season. There is, however, a gold rush in profits to be made in a situation involving the Warriors, but it’s in games that they’re not actually playing in. So far this season, in their first game immediately after playing the Warriors, NBA teams are a combined 4-13-1 ATS.

So, had you bet against every team this season in their first game after playing the Warriors, you would have won your bet 76.5% of the time — good enough for $781 in profits for $100 bettors if you’re getting -110 odds. With such a profitable number in that situation, I wondered if this is simply a coincidence that’s bound to even out over the season, or if maybe this is a reliable spot that bettors can look to cash in on all season long.

There’s two main take-aways:

First – This is a new trend, as teams in this situation went 46-36 ATS last season.

Second – Just because it’s a new trend doesn’t mean there’s not something to it. Teams who’ve played the Warriors this season have combined to cash 50.4% of spread tickets, but that number gets slashed in half to 24.5% in the games immediately following a game with the Warriors.

Combined Records in the Game Following a Matchup with Warriors
SeasonATS Record
2015-1646-36 (56%)
2016-174-13-1 (24.5%)

Could the reason behind this be as simple as the prolonged physical and mental fatigue of trying to defend one of the most prolific offensive attacks in the history of the NBA? Probably not. The Warriors are averaging just four more points per game than they were last season when this wasn't a trend, so it's not as if they're much more overpowering than they were last season — at least not yet. If you're skeptical, maybe consider just targeting teams after they play a game in Golden State, as clubs have gone just 1-6-1 ATS in that spot this season.

The bottom line is that maybe this is just a coincidence  — but it's an extremely profitable one you should continue to ride until it slows down.

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