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Big OVER Trend When Dubs Play Bad D's

Steph Curry Golden State Warriors

You may have noticed that Golden State Warriors totals have been on the rise lately.

Their last three OVER/UNDER totals have been the three highest of the NBA this season at 227 (at Wizards), 233.5 (vs OKC) and 229.5 (vs Rockets). And unless you don’t pay a shred of attention to the NBA, you have likely noticed why.

The Warriors just might be the best 3-point shooting team of all time and they are on pace to drain 1,000 of them this season, something that’s never been done before. I can go on for a week highlighting their stats but the point is they are draining 3s at a ridiculous 42.7 percent rate, well ahead of even second-best San Antonio (39.2 percent).

Why this is important for bettors was perhaps illustrated best last week when the Warriors combined with the Wizards to score 255 points and the game soared over the total by 28. The Dubs shot 48.8 percent from downtown while Stephen Curry scored 51 in a 73.3 percent 3-point shooting night.  

The Wizards are the worst team at defending the 3-pointer in the NBA, allowing teams to shoot 39 percent. So I wondered how Golden State performs against teams that similarly stink at stalling the long ball.

I looked at teams who were currently ranked 20th or worse in the NBA at defending treys percentage-wise and what I found is an OVER bettor’s dream. The OVER/UNDER is 18-4 in the 22 games Golden State has played those teams this season for an OVER winning percentage of 81.8 percent.

The OVER has also come through in nine straight games against these opponents and those games averaged 227.3 points.

Sports books are clearly trying to protect themselves from this angle and we are seeing them elevate totals to an unprecedented level this season. It’s an angle worth noting now though because the next three games the Warriors play are all against teams who rank 20th or worse in defending the trey – Houston (20th), Phoenix (29th) and Portland (23rd).

High totals often scare away the recreational bettor as we can see from the fact that 57 percent of the consensus was on the under for the Rockets game Tuesday night. But keep in mind there is a good reason why totals are set high or low.

Legendary Las Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro told me more than once that if you take the OVER in games with really high totals and you take the UNDER in games with really low totals, you’ll usually come out OK.

And when you take the OVER in games where the Warriors play poor 3-point defending defenses, you’ve come out more than OK this season.

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