NBA Final Odds: Mavericks vs Heat

The Dallas Mavericks can claim their first NBA title tonight if they can get past the Miami Heat in Game 6 of the NBA Finals but oddsmakers don't like their chances, according to the betting line at most shops.

All the Heat taunting will end and all the Heat haters will rejoice if Dallas can win. Bettors hope they do that and also cover the spread and the best Mavs line this morning was at Bovada at +6.

Dallas took a 3-2 series lead with a 112-103 win in Game 6 as a 1-point favorite. Dirk Nowitzki led the Mavericks with 29 points while Dwyane Wade had 23 points and eight assist for Miami. But Dallas has won 13 of the past 15 meetings against Miami. [ Check out a second Game 6 Preview here at OddsShark.com ]

View Dallas vs Miami Odds and Stats.

Betting Line:
The Mavericks are listed as 5.5-point underdogs at many online sportsbooks, with the total listed at 187 at Bovada today.

Power Rankings / Prediction:
The Heat - Mavericks odds would favor the Heat if the lines were set according to power ranks. Miami is rated No. 3 in our latest Odds Shark poll, while the Mavericks sit at No. 6. Math models based on recent stats and predictive formulas however point to a 106-102 win for the Heat.

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How They Match Up:
In rebounding, the battle of the boards features Miami's No. 9-rated squad against Dallas's No. 14-rated roster. When it comes to long-range shooting, Miami rates No. 11 in the league with 6.7 per game, while their foes tonight rank No. 8 with 7.9 per outing.

In comparing how the teams stack up statistically, the Mavericks own the league's No. 9-rated mark, allowing 96.8 points per game when on the road. Miami, on the other hand, rates No. 10 in home scoring.

The Heat were a 112-103 loser in their most recent outing on the road against the Mavericks. They failed to cover the 1–point spread as underdogs, while the total score (215) made winners of OVER bettors. Dwyane Wade scored 23 points in a failed effort to lead the Heat to victory (they lost 112-103 to Dallas at American Airlines Center on Thursday).

Dallas Mavericks Trends:
When playing on Sunday are 5-5
Before playing Miami are 8-2
After playing Miami are 8-2
After a win are 7-3

Miami Heat Trends:
When playing on Sunday are 5-5
Before playing Dallas are 7-3
After playing Dallas are 5-5
After a loss are 8-2


A few Mavericks at Heat trends to consider:
Dallas is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing Miami
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
Dallas is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
Miami is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
Miami is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games at home
Miami is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games

Next up:
Dallas at Miami, Tuesday, June 14
Miami home to Dallas, Tuesday, June 14