St. Mary's takes on Purdue in the 7-vs.-10 game in the Midwest Regional Friday night that could be a high-scoring affair where the OVER is the best bet of the night.
The Gaels, who won both the WCC regular-season and tournament crowns, are getting a point and a half from the Boilermakers, who earned an at-large bid after finishing in sixth place in the Big Ten.
Purdue is 9-1 favoring the OVER in their past 10 games and they love the 3-ball. Both of St. Mary`s conference championship games were high-scoring OVER bets.
The game is being played at CenturyLink Center, which makes it technically a neutral site match.
The Gaels bring a 24-9 record (17-13 ATS) to this tilt against the 21-12 Boilermakers, who are 17-14 ATS. OVER/UNDER bettors have witnessed St. Mary's go 15-14-1 so far and the Boilermakers go 20-11.
Bettors looking to side with St. Mary's in this one will find them as 2-point underdogs.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The Gaels sit at No. 22 in the current college hoops power poll here at Odds Shark, while the Boilermakers sit at No. 120 on the same chart. The computers running our scores simulations have concluded that the Gaels will win this game 81-75.
How They Match Up:
The game also pits St. Mary's's No. 36-ranked offense, averaging 74.9 PPG, against a Boilermakers defense that ranks No. 140 at 66 PPG. The Gaels field goal percentage has averaged 47.5% so far, more than the Boilermakers marksmen have achieved on the year, 44.1% per game.
Comparing how these foes stack up statistically, Purdue owns the country's No. 249-rated mark, allowing 72.9 points per game on the highway. St. Mary's, on the other hand, rates No. 45 in scoring at home.
Purdue lost its last outing, an 88-71 result against Ohio State on March 9. They failed to cover in that game as a 7-point underdog. The Boilermakers endured an 88-71 loss at the hands of the Buckeyes on Friday, despite a 20-point effort from D.J. Byrd at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.
St. Mary's was a 78-74 winner in their most recent outing at home against Gonzaga. They covered the 2-point spread as underdogs. The Gaels grabbed a 78-74 win over the Bulldogs on Monday, behind a 22-point effort from Matthew Dellavedova at Orleans Arena.
Purdue Boilermakers Trends:
When playing on Friday are 5-5
After playing Ohio State are 7-3
After a loss are 8-2
St. Mary's Gaels Trends:
When playing on Friday are 3-7
After playing Gonzaga are 8-2
After a win are 8-2
A few Boilermakers at Gaels trends to consider:
St. Mary's is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Mary's last 6 games
St. Mary's is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games