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Essential Betting Numbers For The NCAA Tournament

For the past week or so I've been pestering our data team with statistical queries pretty much non-stop.

They have dug up some awesome stuff, which I just haven't had time to include in content or mention on-air during March Madness interviews. I'd hate not to share it so I'm dumping everything here for your perusal.

It's not as pretty as I'd like it due to time constraints, but there is some great info here. Below includes:

  • top bets by conference in the NCAA tournament
  • best OVER and UNDER bets this season
  • 12 seed vs 5 seed spread data 
  • data to help you with prop bets
  • Team-by-team betting data from since 2009 tourney 

Enjoy. Good luck and bet with your head this tournament. 

Here’s every team in March Madness ranked from most UNDER to most OVER BETS this regular season (note some teams only had a few games with totals listed), the percentages are the % of games that went over

1 - North Carolina Central 1-5 OU ( 16.7 % )
2 - Miami 9-21-1 OU ( 29.0 % )
3 - Vermont 3-7 OU ( 30.0 % )
4 - Jacksonville State 9-20 OU ( 31.0 % )
5 - Florida Gulf Coast 2-4 OU ( 33.3 % )
6 - New Orleans 1-1-1 OU ( 33.3 % )
7 - Villanova 12-22 OU ( 35.3 % )
8 - Middle Tennessee 12-20-1 OU ( 36.4 % )
9 - South Carolina 11-17-1 OU ( 37.9 % )
10 - St. Mary's 12-19 OU ( 38.7 % )
11 - Virginia 12-19 OU ( 38.7 % )
12 - Wisconsin 12-17-2 OU ( 38.7 % )
13 - North Carolina 13-20 OU ( 39.4 % )
14 - Creighton 13-18-1 OU ( 40.6 % )
15 - Northwestern 13-17-2 OU ( 40.6 % )
16 - Vanderbilt 13-18-1 OU ( 40.6 % )
17 - Mount St. Mary's 3-4 OU ( 42.9 % )
18 - New Mexico State 3-4 OU ( 42.9 % )
19 - Princeton 10-13 OU ( 43.5 % )
20 - Providence 14-17-1 OU ( 43.8 % )
21 - UC Davis 14-18 OU ( 43.8 % )
22 - Baylor 13-16 OU ( 44.8 % )
23 - Kansas State 13-16 OU ( 44.8 % )
24 - Butler 14-16-1 OU ( 45.2 % )
25 - Florida 14-17 OU ( 45.2 % )
26 - Kent State 14-17 OU ( 45.2 % )
27 - Maryland 14-17 OU ( 45.2 % )
28 - Northern Kentucky 14-17 OU ( 45.2 % )
29 - Seton Hall 14-17 OU ( 45.2 % )
30 - Kansas 14-16 OU ( 46.7 % )
31 - Cincinnati 15-16-1 OU ( 46.9 % )
32 - Michigan State 15-17 OU ( 46.9 % )
33 - USC 15-17 OU ( 46.9 % )
34 - Arizona 16-17-1 OU ( 47.1 % )
35 - Oregon 16-17 OU ( 48.5 % )
36 - UCLA 16-14-3 OU ( 48.5 % )
37 - Xavier 16-17 OU ( 48.5 % )
38 - Arkansas 16-16 OU ( 50.0 % )
39 - Duke 17-17 OU ( 50.0 % )
40 - Florida State 16-16 OU ( 50.0 % )
41 - Kentucky 17-17 OU ( 50.0 % )
42 - Louisville 15-15 OU ( 50.0 % )
43 - Notre Dame 14-14 OU ( 50.0 % )
44 - Rhode Island 16-15-1 OU ( 50.0 % )
45 - Virginia Tech 14-14 OU ( 50.0 % )
46 - East Tennessee State 16-15 OU ( 51.6 % )
47 - Gonzaga 16-15 OU ( 51.6 % )
48 - Marquette 16-15 OU ( 51.6 % )
49 - Nevada 18-15-1 OU ( 52.9 % )
50 - Iona 17-13-2 OU ( 53.1 % )
51 - Oklahoma State 15-13 OU ( 53.6 % )
52 - Bucknell 6-4-1 OU ( 54.5 % )
53 - West Virginia 17-14 OU ( 54.8 % )
54 - Wichita State 17-14 OU ( 54.8 % )
55 - Purdue 16-12-1 OU ( 55.2 % )
56 - Southern Methodist 16-13 OU ( 55.2 % )
57 - UNC Wilmington 16-13 OU ( 55.2 % )
58 - North Dakota 16-12 OU ( 57.1 % )
59 - Minnesota 18-13 OU ( 58.1 % )
60 - Virginia Commonwealth 18-13 OU ( 58.1 % )
61 - Dayton 17-12 OU ( 58.6 % )
62 - Michigan 19-11-2 OU ( 59.4 % )
63 - Troy 19-13 OU ( 59.4 % )
64 - Iowa State 18-12 OU ( 60.0 % )
65 - South Dakota State 19-12 OU ( 61.3 % )
66 - Texas Southern 6-3 OU ( 66.7 % )
67 - Wake Forest 22-9-1 OU ( 68.8 % )
68 - Winthrop 7-2 OU ( 77.8 % )

What are the highest and the lowest spreads for 12 seeds going back as far as our DB goes? Have any ever been favored?

Going back to 1996 for MM… 

If you don’t limit this to first-round play, there have been 12 occurrences of 12 seeds being favored (most of which are when 12 seed met 13 seed in second round, the best of which being a spread of -8.5 for the 12 seed). If you limit this to the first round, there have been 4 occurrences of 12 seeds being favored over the 5 seed (spreads were all -1 or -1.5).

Largest underdog spread for 12 seeds is +26.5 (against a 1 seed so it was in the Sweet 16).

Largest underdog spread in the first round was +13

How many games have gone to OT going back 10 seasons? 

2016 – 3 games
2015 – 4 games
2014 – 7 games
2013 – 1 game
2012 – 1 game
2011 – 5 games
2010 – 5 games
2009 – 2 games
2008 – 6 games
2007 – 5 games
Total – 39 games

Double-digit faves in the tourney performance?

SU: 113-12
ATS: 61-64
OU: 54-69-2
 
Double-digit faves in the tourney last year?

SU: 14-1
ATS: 10-5
OU: 10-5

There are 8 spreads of 4 points or less this year for the first and second round (2 possessions of 2-point buckets). What is the most we've had of 4 points or Fewer for Thursday and Friday?

It’s a tie between 2010 and 2011 in which there were 14 games in the first round with one team favored by 4 points or less. Believe it or not, 8 is actually on the low end.

How do these conferences perform O/U and ATS in the tourney (Power 5 conferences, Big East, AAC, Atlantic-10, Missouri Valley)?

This goes back to the 1995-96 season:
 
Pacific-12
SU: 148-107
ATS: 128-124-3
OU: 112-102-1
 
Big Ten
SU: 204-132
ATS: 178-151-4
OU: 150-152-3
 
Big 12
SU: 153-108
ATS: 131-127-3
OU: 112-122-4
 
Atlantic Coast
SU: 257-149
ATS: 188-210-7
OU: 170-189-4
 
Big East
SU: 105-93
ATS: 102-89-3
OU: 81-89-5
 
Atlantic 10
SU: 48-63
ATS: 63-46-2
OU: 44-52-3
 
The American
SU: 96-65
ATS: 80-78-3
OU: 71-62-2
 
Southeastern
SU: 167-112
ATS: 140-130-8
OU: 129-117-6
 
Missouri Valley
SU: 26-29
ATS: 33-20
OU: 29-23-1

Kent State
SU: 0-1
ATS: 0-1
OU: 1-0
 
UCLA
SU: 14-7
ATS: 10-11
OU: 10-11
 
Marquette
SU: 9-7
ATS: 8-8
OU: 7-9
 
South Carolina
 
Northern Kentucky
 
Kentucky
SU: 24-7
ATS: 17-12-2
OU: 15-15-1
 
Michigan State
SU: 23-10
ATS: 19-14
OU: 17-16
 
Miami
SU: 5-3
ATS: 4-4
OU: 6-2
 
Troy
 
Duke
SU: 22-8
ATS: 16-14
OU: 12-18
 
Wichita State
SU: 9-5
ATS: 9-5
OU: 8-6
 
Dayton
SU: 6-4
ATS: 6-4
OU: 3-7
 
Rhode Island
 
Creighton
SU: 3-4
ATS: 2-5
OU: 2-4-1
 
Texas Southern
SU: 0-2
ATS: 1-1
OU: 2-0
 
North Carolina
SU: 28-8
ATS: 21-15
OU: 21-14-1
 
Jacksonville State
 
Louisville
SU: 22-8
ATS: 16-13-1
OU: 15-14-1
 
Iona
SU: 0-3
ATS: 0-3
OU: 2-1
 
Oregon
SU: 10-6
ATS: 10-6
OU: 8-8
 
Seton Hall
SU: 0-1
ATS: 0-1
OU: 0-1
 
Arkansas
SU: 2-3
ATS: 1-4
OU: 4-1
 
New Mexico State
SU: 0-6
ATS: 2-4
OU: 1-5
 
Baylor
SU: 8-6
ATS: 6-8
OU: 8-6
 
Oklahoma State
SU: 1-5
ATS: 2-4
OU: 3-3
 
Michigan
SU: 11-6
ATS: 11-5-1
OU: 8-9
 
Nevada
SU: 1-1
ATS: 1-1
OU: 1-1
 
Iowa State
SU: 6-5
ATS: 7-4
OU: 8-3
 
North Dakota
 
Arizona
SU: 13-8
ATS: 10-11
OU: 11-10
 
Virginia Tech
SU: 1-1
ATS: 0-2
OU: 0-2
 
Wisconsin
SU: 20-10
ATS: 18-11-1
OU: 14-16
 
Florida Gulf Coast
SU: 3-2
ATS: 5-0
OU: 4-1
 
Florida State
SU: 3-4
ATS: 2-5
OU: 1-6
 
Vermont
SU: 1-2
ATS: 1-2
OU: 0-2-1
 
Purdue
SU: 8-8
ATS: 10-6
OU: 8-8
 
Virginia Commonwealth
SU: 9-8
ATS: 14-3
OU: 8-8-1
 
St. Mary's
SU: 3-4
ATS: 3-4
OU: 2-5
 
Xavier
SU: 13-9
ATS: 17-4-1
OU: 11-11
 
Maryland
SU: 6-5
ATS: 4-7
OU: 6-5
 
Vanderbilt
SU: 3-6
ATS: 4-5
OU: 2-6-1
 
Northwestern
 
Middle Tennessee
SU: 1-2
ATS: 1-2
OU: 1-2
 
Minnesota
SU: 1-3
ATS: 1-3
OU: 3-1
 
East Tennessee State
SU: 0-2
ATS: 1-1
OU: 1-1
 
Florida
SU: 19-5
ATS: 14-10
OU: 14-9-1
 
Bucknell
SU: 0-2
ATS: 0-2
OU: 1-1
 
West Virginia
SU: 9-7
ATS: 9-7
OU: 6-9-1
 
South Dakota State
SU: 0-3
ATS: 1-2
OU: 1-2
 
Gonzaga
SU: 12-10
ATS: 9-13
OU: 14-8
 
Winthrop
SU: 1-3
ATS: 1-3
OU: 0-4
 
Butler
SU: 16-8
ATS: 19-5
OU: 9-14-1
 
UNC Wilmington
SU: 0-1
ATS: 1-0
OU: 1-0
 
Virginia
SU: 7-5
ATS: 5-6-1
OU: 7-5
 
Princeton
SU: 0-1
ATS: 1-0
OU: 0-1
 
Notre Dame
SU: 8-8
ATS: 5-11
OU: 4-12
 
USC
SU: 3-5
ATS: 4-4
OU: 4-4
 
Providence
SU: 1-3
ATS: 1-3
OU: 1-3
 
UC Davis
 
North Carolina Central
SU: 0-1
ATS: 0-1
OU: 1-0
 
Wake Forest
SU: 1-2
ATS: 1-2
OU: 3-0
 
Kansas State
SU: 6-6
ATS: 5-7
OU: 4-6-2
 
New Orleans
 
Mount St. Mary's
SU: 1-2
ATS: 1-2
OU: 2-1
 
Southern Methodist
SU: 0-1
ATS: 0-1
OU: 0-1
 
Cincinnati
SU: 4-6
ATS: 4-6
OU: 4-5-1
 
Kansas
SU: 27-9
ATS: 19-17
OU: 9-27
 
Villanova
SU: 15-8
ATS: 13-10
OU: 11-11-1

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