First Four Odds: MidTen vs. Saint Mary's
Middle Tennessee is 14-1 SU and 9-5-1 ATS over its last 15 games, and will take on a Saint Mary’s team in the First Four on Tuesday that is also hot with a 14-2 SU and 8-8 ATS record over its last 16 games.
The winner will earn a No. 11 seed in the Round of 64 and take on No. 6 Memphis.
The total has gone OVER in seven of Middle Tennessee’s last 10 games and in three of Saint Mary’s last four games. Saint Mary’s is 2-2 SU and ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games while Middle Tennessee is making its first tournament appearance since back in 1989.
Supporters of the Blue Raiders have watched them go 28-5 and 15-14-1 ATS on the year, while the Gaels are at 27-6 and 15-16 ATS. In totals betting, the Gaels are 14-14, while the Blue Raiders have a 15-13 mark.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The Odds Shark Power Rankings have the Gaels at No. 42 and the Blue Raiders at No. 8 heading into this contest. Handicapping models at Odds Shark project a 80-79 result in favor of the Blue Raiders.
How They Match Up:
Scoring and defensive stats point to some edges in this matchup. The game features St. Mary's's No. 23-ranked scoring average of 75.5 PPG, against a Blue Raiders defense rated No. 15 and allowing 57.8 PPG. The Gaels FG% has averaged 47.4% to date this season, more than the Blue Raiders shooters have managed so far (46.3% per game).
Comparing how these foes stack up statistically, Middle Tennessee owns the country's No. 19-rated mark, allowing 61.2 points per game on the highway. St. Mary's, on the other hand, rates No. 32 in scoring at home.
Last time out for Middle Tennessee, they were a 61-57 loser as they battled Florida International at home. They failed to cover in the match as a 13-point favorite. Middle Tennessee got 17 points from Shawn Jones but lost anyway, 61-57, to Florida International on Sunday at Summit Arena.
In their last action, St. Mary's was a 65-51 loser on the road against Gonzaga. They failed to cover the 6.5-point spread as underdogs. The Gaels endured a 65-51 loss at the hands of the Bulldogs on Monday, despite a 19-point effort from Stephen Holt at Orleans Arena.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Trends:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
After playing Florida International are 6-4
After a loss are 9-1
St. Mary's Gaels Trends:
When playing on Tuesday are 8-2
After playing Gonzaga are 7-3
After a loss are 8-2
A few Blue Raiders at Gaels trends to consider:
St. Mary's is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
St. Mary's is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games