March Madness Betting Trends
Some teams thrive in the March Madness spotlight while others wilt under the pressure.
And while player rosters turn over quickly in NCAA basketball, there seem to be some meaningful trends that transcend seasons and provide some wagering value.
Whether it’s school pride or coaching philosophies or just plain strange luck, there are trends worth noting as you make your bracket picks and college basketball bets this March.
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The 2014 bracket features some intriguing matchups and top seeds that few would have predicted. It also features an unusual trend involving 8 vs 9 games. In eight recent games where the higher-seeded No. 8 teams are actually underdogs, they have covered the spread all eight times. This angle is in play again with Gonzaga and Colorado in 2014.
Tulsa faces UCLA as an underdog but the Golden Hurricane have been one of college basketball's best bets lately with a 17-3 ATS streak. They are also 6-0 ATS in first-round tournament games.
Villanova struggles in the first round, as their 1-6 ATS mark proves. They are favored big against 15-seed Milwaukee in the East region.
The best team to bet on in March Madness needs to win a play-in game to get in the dance. Xavier, 19-2-1 ATS in their past 22 tournament games, faces NC State in the play-in game.
Indiana has been a lock in the Round of 64, covering the spread at a 6-1 clip the past seven years that the Hoosiers have played in the tournament. They face the winner of the Long Island vs James Madison play-in game and will be a huge favorite.
Virginia Commonwealth has built a reputation as a giant slayer in the tournament and they have been the biggest moneymaker in recent years. VCU boasts an 11-1 ATS mark in its past 12 tournament games and they are a 5 seed facing Akron this week.
Fellow mid-major standout Butler is also an underdog betting darling. Butler’s 9-1 ATS record in their past 10 tournament games proves that coaching, expectations and maybe a bit of ignorance on the part of the general public can offer up some terrific profit potential. Butler faces Bucknell as a 6 seed.
It can also prevent some busted brackets.
If you are looking for some teams that historically falter, look no further than Notre Dame, a 7 seed facing No. 10 Iowa State in the West Region. The Irish are 1-7 ATS in 8 recent tournament games and have also been a reliable UNDER bet (8-1-1 past 10 tournament games).
Minnesota is 0-5 SU & ATS since 1997, while Philadelphia schools have been money losers. Temple is 0-6-1 ATS in their past 7 Madness games and Villanova is 0-4 ATS in their past four.
Check out more March Madness tournament trends below, courtesy of the Odds Shark NCAA basketball database.
Florida 9-3 ATS past 12 tournament games
Davidson 6-2 ATS past 8 Madness games
Gonzaga OVER is 8-2 past 10 tournament games
Indiana 6-1 ATS past 7 first-round games
Louisville 4-0-1 ATS last year in Madness
Marquette 3-6 ATS past 9 first-round games
Marquette UNDER is 5-1 past 6 March Madness games
Memphis OVER is 10-2 past 12 tournament games
Memphis 1-4 ATS past 5 first-round games
Missouri OVER is 12-2-1 past 15 tournament games
Missouri 1-4 ATS past 5 tournament games
Notre Dame 1-7 ATS past 8 tournament games
Notre Dame UNDER is 8-1-1 past 10 tournament games
Ohio State 13-5 SU in tournament since 20007
UNLV 0-4 SU & ATS in tournament since 2008
VCU 11-1 ATS past 12 tournament games
Wichita State 12-4 ATS past 16 games overall
Wisconsin 5-1 ATS past 6 first-round games
Wisconsin 5-1 ATS past 2 tournaments
Oklahoma State UNDER is 9-3 past 12 tournament games
Oregon is 3-8 ATS in tournament since 2000
Saint Louis 4-1 ATS in tournament since 1998
New Mexico State lost 6 straight tournament games since 1993
Valpo is 0-4 SU & ATS since 1999, losing by average 77-53
Creighton 2-7 ATS past 9 tournament games
Cincinnati 5-2 ATS in first round since 2002
Pitt 2-7 ATS past 9 tournament games
Ole Miss first tournament trip since 2002
Arizona 11-4 ATS past 15 tournament games
New Mexico 1-5 ATS past 6 tournament games
New Mexico UNDER is 7-1 past 8 tournament games
UNDER is 9-2 past 11 Kansas tournament games
Villanova 0-4 ATS past 4 tournament games (UNDER 4-0)
UCLA 2-6 ATS past 8 tournament games
OVER is 6-1 past UCLA tournament games
Minnesota 0-5 SU & ATS since 1997
UNDER is 13-4 past 17 Georgetown tournament games
Georgetown 3-7 ATS past 10 tournament games
UNDER is 7-1 past 8 NC State tournament games
NC State 6-2 ATS in tournament since 2005
Temple 0-6-1 ATS past 7 tournament games
Cal is 1-5 ATS past 6 tournament games
Syracuse is 2-5 ATS past 7 tournament games
Butler is 9-1 ATS past 10 tournament games
UNDER is 8-2-1 past 11 Butler tournament games
Illinois has alternated ATS wins and losses past 10 games (win is due)
Miami played 7 straight tournament OVERs