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Aggies host Mustangs in Week 4 action

Southern Methodist MustangsTexas A&M Aggies
Sep 21, 7:00 PM | Grass of Kyle Field

 

Southern Methodist Mustangs vs Texas A&M Aggies Odds

The Aggies will be looking to bounce back from their thrilling loss to No. 1 Alabama against an SMU team they blasted 48-3 last season.

Texas A&M has blitzed SMU three times since 2005, outscoring them 160-25 in the process. Johnny Manziel and A&M opened as a 26.5-point home favorite in what’s expected to be a shootout.

The Aggies’ last four home games have gone over the total, averaging 87 points. Manziel passed for more than 400 yards and rush for nearly 100 yards against Alabama’s defense. Imagine what he’ll do against the Mustangs’ defense, which just allowed 30 points to Montana State.

After losing its opener to Texas Tech, SMU (1-1, 0-2 ATS) snuck by Montana State, 31-30, last week. The Mustangs have lost to the Aggies by an average score of 47-9 the past two seasons.

A&M bounced back from both of its losses last year to cover the spread in its next game.

View Southern Methodist vs Texas AM Odds and Stats.

Betting Line: The Mustangs were listed as 26.5-point underdogs on the opening NCAA football line at 5Dimes and most sportsbooks tracked by OddsShark. The total was 78 midweek at SportBet.

Power Rankings / Prediction: The power rankings show a disparity between these teams, with the Aggies rated this week at No. 49 and the Mustangs sitting at No. 21. It may or may not play a role in OddsShark score prediction models that turned out a 55-29 result in favor of the Aggies this week.

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How They Match Up:
The game also pits Texas A&M's No. 4-ranked offense, averaging 53 PPG, against a Mustangs defense that ranks No. 105 this week at 35.5 PPG. The Aggies aerial game is averaging 416 yards per game, more than the Mustangs secondary allows through the air, 315.5 YPG per game.

In their last action, Southern Methodist was a 31-30 winner at home against Montana State. They failed to cover the 10.5-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (61) was profitable news for OVER bettors. Garrett Gilbert's 317-yard performance through the air was enough last time out, as Southern Methodist earned a 31-30 win over Montana State on Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.

Texas A&M was a 49-42 loser in its last match at home against Alabama. They covered the 8.5-point spread as underdogs, while the total score of 91 sent OVER bettors to the payout window. Johnny Manziel handled the Crimson Tide defense in his team's most recent action, throwing for 464 yards, but Texas A&M still lost to Alabama 49-42.

Southern Methodist Mustangs Trends:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on grass are 2-8
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the conference are 5-5

Texas A&M Aggies Trends:
When playing in September are 6-4
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing outside the conference are 9-1

A few Mustangs at Aggies trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Southern Methodist's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Southern Methodist's last 10 games on the road
Southern Methodist is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Southern Methodist is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Texas A&M is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas A&M's last 5 games
Texas A&M is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Next up:
Southern Methodist at TCU, Saturday, September 28
Texas A&M at Arkansas, Saturday, September 28