Arkansas State favored by 3 against Troy on Saturday
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Troy Trojans Odds
Troy looks to cover the Trojans-Red Wolves point spread this week and improve its overall 5-5 mark when they host Arkansas State in Week 12 action.
This season the Trojans are 5-5 overall and 6-4 ATS against the number, while the Red Wolves are 7-3 and 6-4 ATS. As for the totals, Troy is 6-4 on the OU, and Arkansas State is 5-4.
Betting Line: Bettors going with the Trojans in this game found them listed as 3-point underdogs on the betting line at Sportsbook.ag earlier in the week.
Power Rankings / Prediction: The Trojans - Red Wolves odds would favor the Red Wolves if the lines were set according to power ranks. Troy is rated No. 88 in our latest OddsShark poll, while the Red Wolves sit at No. 40. Math models based on recent stats and predictive formulas point to a 39-32 win for the Red Wolves.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Troy's No. 44-ranked offense (31.2 PPG) against a Red Wolves defense that ranks No. 62 at 27.1 PPG. The Trojans passing attack has averaged 325 yards per game, more than the Red Wolves give up through the air (223.7 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the Red Wolves own the league's No. 85-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 198.4 yards per game when on the road. Troy, on the other hand, rates No. 84 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
Arkansas State was a 45-23 winner in their most recent outing at home against Louisiana-Monroe. They covered the 7-point spread as favorites, while the total score (68) made winners of OVER bettors. Ryan Aplin led the way last time out for the Red Wolves, connecting for 334 passing yards and a 45-23 victory over the Warhawks at ASU Stadium.
Last time out for Troy, they were a 41-31 winner as they battled Navy at home. Troy covered in the match as a 3-point underdog, while 72 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors. Corey Robinson led the way last time out for the Trojans, connecting for 322 passing yards and a 41-31 victory over the Midshipmen at Veterans Memorial Stadium.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Trends:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the conference are 9-1
Troy Trojans Trends:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 4-6
A few Red Wolves at Trojans trends to consider:
Arkansas State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Arkansas State's last 14 games on the road
Arkansas State is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Arkansas State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Troy
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Troy's last 5 games
Troy is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arkansas State
Troy is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
Troy is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games
Arkansas State home to Middle Tennessee, Saturday, December 1
Troy at Middle Tennessee, Saturday, November 24