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Best and Worst Bets of NCAAF Season

With the regular season wrapped up and only the bowl games remaining, we take a look back at which teams were the best and worst bets of the season in college football. If you have notions of seeing your Alabama’s and Oklahoma’s here, think again because the best bets are always flying under-the-radar.

Best Teams Against The Spread

The Toledo Rockets had a successful season in the MAC, finishing first in the West and are preparing for a trip to the Boca Raton Bowl later this month. Toledo ended the regular season leading the MAC in rushing yards while finishing second in points. The Rockets high-octane offense made them the best team to bet in college this season with the team finishing 9-2 ATS.

Close behind Toledo were the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles and Bowling Green who closed out the season 10-3 ATS. Both of those team’s finished in the top 11 in the nation in points per game, which seems to be a solid indicator to which teams will be great ATS plays.

Best ATS teams in NCAAF This Season
TeamATS Record
Toledo Rockets9-2
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles10-3
Bowling Green Falcons10-3
Washington State Cougars9-3
South Florida Bulls9-2-1

Worst Teams Against The Spread

The season started with some modest hopes for the Charlotte 49ers after they won their first two games. The team then proceeded to lose out the rest of the way to a 2-10 SU record. The team was equally terrible for bettors, as the 49ers ended the season with just one cover. This is a team whose quarterbacks ended the season with 12 touchdowns and 23 interceptions, so it never seemed to matter how big the chalk was, they weren’t going to cover.

Just slightly behind Charlotte is Auburn. The Tigers have been one of the worst bets in college football over the past two seasons with a 2-14-1 ATS mark in their past 17 trips to the field. Auburn got beaten up in conference play this season going 2-6 SU and 2-5-1 ATS against SEC opponents. 

Worst ATS teams in NCAAF This Season
TeamATS Record
Charlotte 49ers1-6-3
Auburn Tigers2-9-1
UCF2-10
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors3-10
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets3-9

Best OVER Teams

Syracuse’s abysmal defense was what made them the top OVER team in the nation this season. The Orange allowed 31.0 points per game, good for 92nd in the country, while allowing 40 or more points in five of their final eight games. Syracuse had an average closing total of 48 points this season, which meant they needed to average 19 points per game to go over.

There’s a logjam of teams that were profitable for total bettors this season with Utah State, UNLV, and Texas Tech all going OVER in nine of their 12 games.

Top OVER Teams
TeamATS Record
Syracuse Orange10-2
Utah State Aggies9-3
UNLV Rebels9-3
Texas Tech Red Raiders9-3
New Mexico State Lobos9-2-1

Top UNDER Teams

Mizzou was a perfect storm for UNDERS this season with an offense that averaged 13 points per game and a defense that allowed a mere 16.2. The Tigers went OVER once all season long and finished with a final O/U record of 1-11.

The only team in the same category as Mizzou for UNDER bettors was Vanderbilt, who also combined an anaemic offense and tight defense to hit books hard this season.  The closing total when Mizzou and Vandy played this season actually had the lowest total of the year (34.5), which they still managed to go below. 

Top Under Teams
TeamATS Record
Mizzou Tigers1-11
Vanderbilt Commodores1-10-1
UConn Huskies2-10
Boston College Eagles2-10
West Virginia Mountaineers3-9

Odds & Ends

The largest spread this season was on September 12, when the Baylor Bears hosted the Lamar Cardinals. That game closed at Baylor -57, which they ultimately did not cover as they won by 35 points.

The largest total of the season also featured Baylor, this time on October 3rd when they visited the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The total closed at an astounding 89 points, which is the highest our database has ever seen. The two teams combined for a ridiculous 98 points when all was said and done.

As mentioned above, the lowest total of the season belongs to Mizzou and Vandy who closed at 34.5 points. The two teams combined for one touchdown and a mere 13 points in that contest.

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