The Florida Gators, coming off a comeback victory over Tennessee, look for a 3-0 start to their SEC season when they host the Kentucky Wildcats Saturday afternoon (12:20 ET SEC Network/ESPN3).
Florida, which trailed the Vols late in the third quarter before scoring the last 24 points of the game, is favored by 25 points over 1-2 Kentucky, which just lost to Western Kentucky in overtime.
The Gators have dominated the Wildcats, winning 20 straight and covering huge spreads in the past five meetings of these SEC rivals. [ Follow us on Twitter for live lines and injury updates before game time ]
View Kentucky vs Florida Odds and Stats.
Betting Line: The visitors opened as 23.5-point underdogs in this one at Sportsbook and most sportsbooks tracked here at OddsShark. The total was sitting near 52.5 over at Sportsbook.
Power Rankings / Prediction: It's a betting matchup between the No. 52-rated Gators and the No. 100-ranked Wildcats, according to the NCAAF Power Rankings here at Odds Shark. Predictive-scoring models run on this game indicate a potential 36-30 result in favor of the Gators.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Florida's No. 69-ranked offense (28 PPG) against a Wildcats defense that ranks No. 75 at 26 PPG. The Gators passing attack has averaged 176.3 yards per game, less than the Wildcats give up through the air (211.3 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the Wildcats own the league's No. 73-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 219 yards per game when on the road. Florida, on the other hand, rates No. 42 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
Kentucky was a 32-31 loser in their most recent outing at home against Western Kentucky. They failed to cover the 6.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score (63) made Sportsbooks of OVER bettors. In their last game, Kentucky's aerial attack generated 332 yards but it was the Hilltoppers coming away with a 32-31 victory over Kentucky at Commonwealth Stadium.
Florida was a 37-20 Sportsbook in its last match on the road against Tennessee. They covered the 3-point spread as underdogs, while the total score of 57 sent OVER bettors to the payout window. Mike Gillislee went over the 100-yard mark (115) in his team's latest effort as Florida defeated Tennessee by a score of 37-20 on Saturday.
Kentucky Wildcats Trends:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 3-7
Florida Gators Trends:
When playing in September are 10-0
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 5-5
A few Wildcats at Gators trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kentucky's last 5 games when playing Florida
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kentucky's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kentucky's last 9 games on the road
Kentucky is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kentucky
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kentucky
Florida is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games
Next up:
Kentucky home to South Carolina, Saturday, September 29
Florida home to LSU, Saturday, October 6
