USC Favored Over Cal: Pac 12 Pick
The USC Trojans, coming off a devastating loss at Stanford, look to pick up the pieces when they host the Cal Bears Saturday night (6 pm ET Pac-12 Network).
Southern Cal, which was held to 14 points by the Cardinal and dropped to No. 12 in the rankings, is favored by 16 points over the Bears, who just lost a tough one at Ohio State.
USC is 6-1 ATS in their past seven battles with Cal.
Power Rankings / Prediction: According to the Power Rankings here at OddsShark it's the No. 50-rated Trojans and the No. 78-rated Golden Bears in this matchup. Predictive formulas point to a 45-32 win for the Trojans on Saturday.
How They Match Up:
The game also pits Southern Cal's No. 40-ranked offense, averaging 35 PPG, against a Golden Bears defense that ranks No. 95 this week at 32.3 PPG. The Trojans aerial game is averaging 278.3 yards per game, more than the Golden Bears secondary allows through the air, 257 YPG per game.
Defensively, the Golden Bears feature the league's No. 50-rated road run defense, allowing 163 yards per game. Southern Cal, meanwhile, ranks No. 117 in rushing offense at home.
California was a 35-28 loser in their most recent outing on the road against Ohio State. They covered the 16.5-point spread as underdogs, while the total score (63) made winners of OVER bettors. Brendan Bigelow tore up the turf for 160 rushing yards in the latest Golden Bears game, a 35-28 loss to the Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium.
In their last action, Southern Cal was a 21-14 loser on the road against Stanford. They failed to cover the 9.5-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (35) was profitable news for UNDER bettors. Marqise Lee was good for 100 receiving yards in the Trojans's most recent action, but while it helped his stats, it didn’t help his team to victory and they fell 21-14 to the Trojans.
California Golden Bears Trends:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 3-7
When playing within the conference are 5-5
Southern Cal Trojans Trends:
When playing in September are 8-2
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 7-3
A few Golden Bears at Trojans trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of California's last 8 games when playing Southern Cal
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of California's last 6 games when playing on the road against Southern Cal
California is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
California is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing California
Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against California
Southern Cal is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Southern Cal's last 8 games when playing California
California home to Arizona State, Saturday, September 29
Southern Cal at Utah, Thursday, October 4