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The Betting Reason Why Alabama Deserves To Be In The Football Playoff

If you’re one of the many who feels Alabama does not deserve to be included in the College Football Playoff, I hear you. But you’re wrong. 

The Tide absolutely deserve to be there and the betting story tells us why. When it comes to putting real dollars on the line, the Tide would be favored over all but (maybe) two teams in the nation — Auburn and Clemson. 

Never mind the fact they have just one loss in one of the top two conferences in the country. Or that their schedule included four teams ranked in the top 25 of the College Football Playoff. Or that they rank fifth in the College Football Playoff rankings. 

Alabama is also currently still listed as the co-favorite to win the national championship at some books at +350 along with Clemson and Oklahoma. 

Here’s a look at where I would hang the line if I were setting it for Alabama versus the bubble teams on a neutral field:   

Alabama Point Spread Vs The CFP Contenders
Alabama OpponentCollege Football Playoff Ranking (Nov. 28)Jonny’s Point Spread For Alabama
Clemson1+1
Auburn2Pick’em
Oklahoma3-9.5
Wisconsin4-6
Georgia6-3.5
Miami7-10
Ohio State8-7
USC10-6
TCU11-9.5

For many, I’m sure Oklahoma’s is the most surprising number here. But Oklahoma ranks 57th in scoring defense and 61st in total defense and is marshmallow-cushy up front. And you can’t beat Alabama if you can’t play tough defense. 

The other thing to keep in mind here is that these are purely the lines I’d set vs Alabama. You shouldn’t deduce, for example, that since I have both TCU and Oklahoma set at +9.5 against Alabama that therefore I’d set the spread as a pick’em if those two teams were to play each other. (Which they will do in the Big 12 championship on Saturday and I think the current line of Sooners -7 is decent.) No, this is purely about the matchup against Alabama. 

Some will disagree and that’s cool. But I also hyped Auburn for weeks leading up to Alabama and feel like I was the only dude in the sports betting world to publicly insist Auburn was going to beat the Tide. So what do I know? 

In the end, I think the odds show that Alabama deserves to be there whether they get in or not. 

Follow me on Twitter @JonnyOddsShark

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