In a match-up of two 5-2 teams North Carolina and Duke meet for the Victory Bell Saturday night in Durham (7 pm ET, ESPNU).

The Heels, who have won four games in a row, were early 10-point favorites over the Blue Devils, who haven't won six games in a season since 1994.



View North Carolina vs Duke Odds and Stats.

Betting Line: Those siding with the visitors in this one saw the Tar Heels listed as 10-point favorites earlier this week at Sportsbook. Meanwhile, the over under line was unavaiilable earlier in the week.

Power Rankings / Prediction: This game matches up the No. 83 (Blue Devils) and the No. 17 (Tar Heels) teams in the league, according to our current NCAAF Power Rankings at OddsShark. A 53-38 result in favor of the Tar Heels is predicted by handicapping models.



How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Duke's No. 34-ranked offense (35.3 PPG) against a Tar Heels defense that ranks No. 22 at 17.3 PPG. The Blue Devils passing attack has averaged 291.3 yards per game, more than the Tar Heels give up through the air (227.3 YPG on average).

Defensively, the Tar Heels feature the league's No. 42-rated road run defense, allowing 142.3 yards per game. Duke, meanwhile, ranks No. 86 in rushing offense at home.

North Carolina won its last outing, a 18-14 result against Miami on October 13. North Carolina failed to cover in that game as a 7.5-point favorite, while the 32 combined points took the game UNDER the total. In their last game, North Carolina got a 177-yard performance from Giovani Bernard as a key part of its 18-14 win over Miami.

Duke lost its last outing, a 41-20 result against Virginia Tech on October 13. Duke failed to cover in that game as a 9.5-point underdog, while the 61 combined points took the game OVER the total. Jamison Crowder hauled in 8 passes for 127 yards against the Virginia Tech defense in the team's last game, but the result was a 41-20 loss against the Hokies on Saturday.


North Carolina Tar Heels Trends:
When playing in October are 7-3
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 4-6

Duke Blue Devils Trends:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on grass are 4-6
After being outgained are 2-8
When playing within the conference are 2-8

A few Tar Heels at Blue Devils trends to consider:
North Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Duke
North Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Duke
North Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina's last 6 games
Duke is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Duke is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Duke is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing North Carolina
Duke is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against North Carolina


Next up:
North Carolina home to North Carolina State, Saturday, October 27
Duke at Florida State, Saturday, October 27