Ohio State huge chalk vs Purdue
The Ohio State Buckeyes tried to impress the poll voters last Saturday, piling up 63 points on Penn State.
OSU, 8-0 and ranked No. 4 in this week's BCS standings, may try to do something similar when it visits West Lafayette to play 1-6 Purdue this Saturday (noon ET, Big Ten Network).
The Buckeyes lead the Leaders Division by a game (and a tie-breaker) over second-place Wisconsin, and seem headed for the Big Ten championship game.
But they've actually had trouble with the Boilers the last two seasons, losing to them two years ago, then needing a late score to force overtime before prevailing last year.
In the early betting Ohio State, 5-2-1 ATS on the season, was favored by 35 points over Purdue, which has scored a total of seven points over its last two games. Purdue is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in its past seven games as a home underdog.
“Ohio State almost never loses as double-digit chalk but the last time it happened, guess who pulled the upset? Purdue, 26-18 back in 2009,” said Jack Randall.
The Boilermakers are 1-6 so far on the season, and 2-5 ATS vs. the number. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, are 8-0 and 6-2 ATS. Over under bettors have seen Purdue go 3-4 and the Buckeyes go 6-2 on the totals.
The game pits the Boilermakers, currently No. 109 in our OddsShark NCAAF Power Rankings, against the Buckeyes, who rate No. 7 in the latest survey. Meanwhile, math and handicapping models run on this game predict a 52-7 victory for the Buckeyes.
In their last action, Ohio State was a 63-14 winner at home against Penn State. They covered the 16-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (77) was profitable news for OVER bettors.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Purdue's No. 121-ranked offense (13.14 PPG) against a Buckeyes defense that ranks No. 15 at 19.12 PPG. The Boilermakers passing attack has averaged 202.43 yards per game, less than the Buckeyes give up through the air (240.25 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Buckeyes feature the league's No. 15-rated road run defense, allowing 113 yards per game. Purdue, meanwhile, ranks No. 117 in rushing offense at home.
A few Buckeyes at Boilermakers trends to consider:
Ohio State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ohio State's last 6 games
Ohio State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Purdue is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Purdue is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Purdue is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Purdue is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
Ohio State at Illinois, Saturday, November 16th
Purdue at Iowa, Saturday, November 9th