Oklahoma and Boise State are the biggest college football bowl game favorites on the 2010 season (-17), but bettors know better than to blindly show their financial faith in the Sooners and Broncos.
Big dogs have packed a big bite in recent years, with even huge favorites losing outright or struggling to win. The result has been a steady stream of underdog successes and in some situations, betting double-digit bowl underdogs has produced an 18-4-1 ATS run over 23 games!
Overall, in the past 10 bowl seasons, the biggest favorite was the 2002 edition of the Kansas State Wildcats against Arizona State in the Holiday Bowl. The Wildcats were favored by 17.5 points and trailed 20-7 early. They scored two late TDs to win 34-27 but never threatened to cover the spread.
Those with really good memories may recall Terrell Suggs winning defensive MVP honors for ASU or the Darren Sproles 41-yard TD scamper in the first half for KSU.
That game was one of only six with spreads bigger than two TDs at shops like – the most recent was the 2005 New Orleans Bowl where Southern Miss just missed covered 15 points against Arkansas State (31-19).
During this 10-year stretch, 41 games saw double-digit spreads with the underdogs prevailing at a 26-14-1 ATS clip, according to the college football database here at OddsShark.com. In half of those underdog ATS wins however, they also won outright!
“That’s an intriguing situation for money line bettors who might find terrific value on double-digit dogs this bowl season,” said Mike Pickett of OddsShark.com. “Not only are dogs a threat to cover, they are a threat to win straight up which makes the money line more appealing because the payout is better.”
The numbers break down differently according to the size of the spread. In games where the favorite faced a bowl point spread of 12 or more, they were 10-8 ATS. However, as soon as the number dropped to between -11.5 and -10, the dogs packed a nasty bite.
In those games, the underdogs went a jaw-dropping and money-making 18-4-1 ATS and winning outright 10 times!
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Two national title games are included in that list of outright dog wins. In the 2001 Orange Bowl, Florida State was favored by 11.5 points against Oklahoma. FSU’s Heisman-winning QB Chris Weinke led the nation is passing that year, but couldn’t manage anything against the Sooners.
And in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl, Miami looked to extend a 34-game winning streak and was favored by 12 against Ohio State. Maurice Clarett scored in the second OT as the Buckeyes upset the Canes 31-24.
The biggest double-digit favorite to fail was hometown Hawaii in the 2002 Hawaii Bowl. J.P. Losman and Mewelde Moore led Tulane to a 36-28 upset as 14.5-point underdogs at , scoring 20 unanswered points in the third quarter to swing the game.
Wyoming also turned the ATS tables on UCLA in the 2004 Las Vegas Bowl, winning 24-21 as 12.5-point dogs. Last bowl season, dogs were 3-2 ATS in five games where the spread was 10 or higher.
College Football Bowl Underdogs (10 points or more) since 2000:
Year Bowl Date away score home score Spread Fave/Dog
2002 Holiday Bowl 12/27/2002 Kansas State 34 Arizona State 27 17.5 dog
2004 Fiesta Bowl 1/1/2005 Arkansas State 19 Southern Miss 31 -15 dog
2002 Hawaii Bowl 12/25/2002 Tulane 36 Hawaii 28 -14.5 dog
2000 Alamo Bowl 12/30/2000 Nebraska 66 Northwestern 17 14.5 fave
2001 Orange Bowl 1/2/2002 Florida 56 Maryland 23 14.5 fave
2008 Alamo Bowl 12/29/2008 Northwestern 23 Missouri 30 -14 dog
2007 Rose Bowl 1/1/2008 Illinois 17 Southern Cal 49 -13.5 fave
2001 Holiday Bowl 12/28/2001 Washington 43 Texas 47 -13.5 dog
2003 GMAC Bowl 12/18/2003 Miami (Ohio) 49 Louisville 28 13 fave
2004 Las Vegas 12/23/2004 Wyoming 24 UCLA 21 -12.5 dog
2006 Poinsettia 12/19/2006 Northern Ill 7 TCU 37 -12.5 fave
2009 Sugar Bowl 1/1/2010 Cincinnati 24 Florida 51 -12.5 fave
2007 International 1/5/2008 Ball State 30 Rutgers 52 -12 fave
2001 Cotton Bowl 1/1/2002 Oklahoma 10 Arkansas 3 12 dog
2002 Humanitarian 12/31/2002 Iowa State 16 Boise State 34 -12 fave
2002 Fiesta Bowl 1/3/2003 Ohio State 31 Miami 24 -12 dog
2003 Tangerine Bowl 12/22/2003 NC State 56 Kansas 26 12 fave
2000 Orange Bowl 1/3/2001 Florida State 2 Oklahoma 13 11.5 dog
2007 Hawaii Bowl 12/23/2007 East Carolina 41 Boise State 38 -11.5 dog
2003 Hawaii Bowl 12/25/2003 Houston 48 Hawaii 54 -11 dog
2002 Emerald Bowl 12/31/2002 Air Force 13 Virginia Tech 20 -11 dog
2007 Papajohns 12/22/2007 South Miss 21 Cincinnati 31 -11 dog
2006 Music City 12/29/2006 Kentucky 28 Clemson 20 -11 dog
2009 Hawaii Bowl 12/24/2009 SMU 45 Nevada 10 -11 dog
2008 St. Petersburg 12/20/2008 Memphis 14 South Florida 41 -10.5 fave
2007 Capital One 1/1/2008 Michigan 41 Florida 35 -10.5 dog
2004 Holiday Bowl 12/30/2004 Texas Tech 45 California 31 -10.5 dog
2003 Houston Bowl 12/30/2003 Navy 14 Texas Tech 38 -10.5 fave
2002 Cotton Bowl 1/1/2003 LSU 20 Texas 35 -10.5 fave
2009 Sun Bowl 12/31/2009 Stanford 27 Oklahoma 31 -10.5 dog
2001 New Orleans 12/18/2001 Colorado St 45 North Texas 20 -10.5 dog
2009 New Mexico 12/19/2009 Wyoming 35 Fresno State 28 -10.5 dog
2005 Capital One 1/2/2006 Wisconsin 24 Auburn 10 -10 dog
2008 Rose Bowl 1/1/2009 Penn State 24 Southern Cal 38 -10 fave
2002 Houston 12/27/2002 Southern Miss 23 Oklahoma State 33 -10 push
2006 Orange Bowl 1/2/2007 Wake Forest 13 Louisville 24 -10 dog
2003 Fort Worth 12/23/2003 TCU 31 Boise State 34 -10 dog
2008 Emerald Bowl 12/27/2008 Miami 17 California 24 -10 dog
2005 Champs Sports 12/27/2005 Colorado 10 Clemson 19 -10 dog
2005 Alamo Bowl 12/28/2005 Nebraska 32 Michigan 28 -10 dog
