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FSU vs USF Betting Preview

The Florida State Seminoles step back out of ACC play when they visit Tampa to play the South Florida Bulls Saturday night (6 pm ET, ESPN).

The 4-0 'Noles, ranked No. 4 in the latest polling, were favored by 16 points over 2-2 USF, which beat FSU three seasons ago in the only previous meeting between these schools.
The line was highest Friday night at Bovada which had pushed USF to +17 as a home underdog.

View Florida State vs South Florida Odds and Stats.

Power Rankings / Prediction: This game matches up the No. 70 (Bulls) and the No. 1 (Seminoles) teams in the league, according to our current NCAAF Power Rankings at OddsShark. A 46-31 result in favor of the Seminoles is predicted by handicapping models.

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How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up South Florida's No. 78-ranked offense (26.5 PPG) against a Seminoles defense that ranks No. 6 at 10 PPG. The Bulls passing attack has averaged 290.2 yards per game, more than the Seminoles give up through the air (124.8 YPG on average).

In their last action, Florida State was a 49-37 winner at home against Clemson. They failed to cover the 14.5-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (86) was profitable news for OVER bettors. EJ Manuel's 380-yard performance through the air was enough last time out, as Florida State earned a 49-37 win over Clemson on Saturday at Doak Campbell Stadium.

In their last action, South Florida was a 31-27 loser on the road against Ball State. They failed to cover the 7.5-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (58) was profitable news for OVER bettors. B.J. Daniels led the way last time out for the Bulls, connecting for 312 passing yards, but failing to earn the victory in a 31-27 loss to the Bulls at Scheumann Stadium.

Florida State Seminoles Trends:
When playing in September are 8-2
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing outside the conference are 9-1

South Florida Bulls Trends:
When playing in September are 7-3
When playing on grass are 3-7
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 8-2

A few Seminoles at Bulls trends to consider:
Florida State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Florida State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida State's last 6 games on the road
South Florida is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
South Florida is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
South Florida is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
South Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Next up:
Florida State at North Carolina State, Saturday, October 6
South Florida at Temple, Saturday, October 6