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SFU vs WVU Football Preview

The West Virginia Mountaineers look to keep their Big East title hopes alive this Thursday night with a win on the road over the South Florida Bulls.

If West Virginia wins and Cincinnati beats Connecticut on Saturday, West Virginia would clinch the Big East’s BCS Bowl berth. South Florida is just 1-6 both SU and ATS in its last seven games since starting the season off 4-0 SU.

Geno Smith passed for 244 yards and a touchdown in West Virginia’s narrow 21-20 win over Pittsburgh last week.

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This season the Bulls are 5-6 overall and 4-7 ATS against the number, while the Mountaineers are 8-3 and 5-6 ATS. As for the totals, South Florida is 6-5 on the OU, and West Virginia is 8-3.

The Mountaineers were favored by 1.5 points at TopBet earlier in the week while the total sat at 55. The best South Florida line was at BetOnline earlier Thursday, check the latest Bulls vs Mountaineers point spread.

View West Virginia vs South Florida Odds and Stats.

Power Rankings / Prediction: According to the Power Rankings here at OddsShark it's the No. 43-rated Bulls and the No. 42-rated Mountaineers in this matchup. Predictive formulas point to a 37-36 win for the Mountaineers on Thursday.

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How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up South Florida's No. 52-ranked offense (29.5 PPG) against a Mountaineers defense that ranks No. 59 at 26.2 PPG. The Bulls passing attack has averaged 251.7 yards per game, more than the Mountaineers give up through the air (197.2 YPG on average).

Defensively, the Mountaineers feature the league's No. 71-rated road run defense, allowing 180.8 yards per game. South Florida, meanwhile, ranks No. 53 in rushing offense at home.

West Virginia was a 21-20 winner in its last match at home against Pittsburgh. They failed to cover the 7–point spread as favorites, while the total score of 41 sent UNDER bettors to the payout window.

South Florida lost its last outing, a 34-24 result against Louisville on November 25. South Florida failed to cover in that game as a 4.5-point favorite, while the 58 combined points took the game OVER the total.

West Virginia Mountaineers Trends:
When playing in December are 7-3
When playing on grass are 3-7
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 8-2

South Florida Bulls Trends:
When playing in December are 3-7
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 3-7

A few Mountaineers at Bulls trends to consider:
West Virginia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of West Virginia's last 6 games when playing South Florida
The total has gone OVER in 8 of West Virginia's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of West Virginia's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of South Florida's last 6 games when playing West Virginia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of South Florida's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of South Florida's last 9 games
South Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

 

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