Oddsmakers do a good job of evaluating how much home-field advantage to figure into college football pointspreads.
If anything, they might overvalue home field slightly in an effort to sucker bettors into laying an extra point or two to take the home team.
According to the OddsShark.com database, home teams went 1,994-2,041-65 (49.41%) against the spread over the last six seasons. Home underdogs were 704-715-26 (49.61%) ATS, with home favorites going 1290-1326-39 (49.31%) against the number during that time period.
Still, as always, there a few teams that consistently exceed the betting market’s expectations when playing in front of their home crowd - and it’s not always the vaunted venues like Michigan’s Big House or LSU’s Death Valley.
Top 5 Undervalued Home-Field Advantages
(ATS home records from 2006-2011)
TCU: 22-11 ATS (66.66%)
The Horned Frogs have gotten fat against Mountain West competition, especially in Fort Worth, where they’ve lost only twice in four seasons. Will that home-field advantage be as potent in the Big 12? TCU gets Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas State, and Oklahoma at home in its first season in a BCS league.
Oklahoma: 23-12 (65.71%)
The Sooners have been a home underdog only twice in coach Bob Stoops’ illustrious career in Norman and are a remarkable 77-3 straight-up at Memorial Stadium since 1999.
California: 23-13 ATS (63.88%)
Quietly, the Golden Bears are 35-24 ATS at home in coach Jeff Tedford’s 10-year tenure. Tedford has been especially deadly when his team has a talent advantage. The Bears are 21-9 since 2006 as a home favorite.
Nevada: 21-12 (63.63%)
Coach Chris Ault doesn’t mind piling on when he’s got the better team. The Wolf Pack are 18-8-1 ATS as home chalk since 2006.
Rice: 20-12 ATS (62.50%)
Just ask Purdue how dangerous the Owls are at Rice Stadium. The Boilermakers lost 24-22 at Rice last season.
Home-field disadvantages
Lowly UNLV has covered in 17 of its last 25 games as a home underdog.
Fresno State is an atrocious 1-19-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2006.
Northwestern has covered the spread just three times in its last 17 games as home chalk.
Best NCAA Football Home Teams Against the Spread
|
Ohio State |
25 |
16 |
0 |
|
UCLA |
24 |
14 |
0 |
|
Oklahoma |
23 |
12 |
1 |
|
California |
23 |
13 |
0 |
|
East Carolina |
22 |
14 |
0 |
|
TCU |
22 |
11 |
0 |
|
Houston |
22 |
10 |
1 |
|
Arkansas |
22 |
14 |
0 |
|
Wisconsin |
22 |
15 |
0 |
|
Temple |
21 |
11 |
1 |
|
Oklahoma St |
21 |
15 |
0 |
|
UCF |
21 |
14 |
1 |
|
Nevada |
21 |
12 |
1 |
|
Stanford |
21 |
16 |
0 |
|
Connecticut |
21 |
13 |
0 |
|
South Carolina |
21 |
15 |
1 |
|
Tennessee |
21 |
19 |
3 |
|
Wake Forest |
21 |
15 |
0 |
|
Kansas |
21 |
15 |
0 |
|
Texas A&M |
21 |
18 |
2 |
|
Auburn |
21 |
21 |
0 |
|
Hawaii |
20 |
17 |
0 |
|
Oregon |
20 |
15 |
3 |
|
Boston College |
20 |
16 |
0 |
|
Rice |
20 |
12 |
1 |
|
Arizona State |
20 |
15 |
1 |
|
Clemson |
20 |
17 |
0 |
|
N.C. State |
20 |
15 |
1 |
|
Florida |
20 |
17 |
1 |
|
UNLV |
20 |
15 |
0 |
|
Utah |
19 |
13 |
2 |
|
BYU |
19 |
16 |
0 |
|
Southern Cal |
19 |
18 |
0 |
|
Kentucky |
19 |
19 |
0 |
|
Toledo |
19 |
16 |
0 |
|
Indiana |
19 |
15 |
1 |
|
Arizona |
19 |
16 |
0 |
|
Boise State |
18 |
17 |
0 |
|
Oregon State |
18 |
16 |
0 |
|
Alabama |
18 |
22 |
1 |
|
Louisiana Tech |
18 |
10 |
0 |
|
Minnesota |
18 |
17 |
1 |
|
Kansas State |
18 |
16 |
1 |
|
Iowa State |
18 |
17 |
0 |
|
Texas |
18 |
21 |
1 |
|
Nebraska |
18 |
23 |
0 |
|
North Carolina |
18 |
16 |
0 |
|
Washington |
18 |
22 |
0 |
|
Iowa |
18 |
18 |
1 |
|
Mississippi |
18 |
17 |
1 |
|
Michigan |
18 |
23 |
1 |
|
Virginia Tech |
17 |
19 |
0 |
|
Cincinnati |
17 |
14 |
1 |
|
Pittsburgh |
17 |
20 |
0 |
|
Georgia Tech |
17 |
15 |
2 |
|
Michigan State |
17 |
23 |
1 |
|
Tulsa |
17 |
16 |
0 |
|
Vanderbilt |
17 |
20 |
0 |
|
Missouri |
17 |
18 |
0 |
|
New Mexico |
17 |
18 |
0 |
|
San Jose State |
17 |
12 |
0 |
|
Washington State |
17 |
17 |
0 |
|
LSU |
17 |
23 |
1 |
|
Marshall |
17 |
13 |
0 |
|
Colorado |
17 |
16 |
1 |
|
Ohio |
16 |
13 |
0 |
|
Southern Miss |
16 |
16 |
0 |
|
Central Michigan |
16 |
10 |
0 |
|
Mississippi State |
16 |
18 |
0 |
|
Rutgers |
16 |
18 |
1 |
|
Purdue |
16 |
21 |
1 |
|
Syracuse |
16 |
20 |
0 |
|
Texas Tech |
16 |
15 |
1 |
|
Baylor |
16 |
17 |
1 |
|
San Diego State |
16 |
15 |
1 |
|
Colorado State |
16 |
16 |
0 |
|
Penn State |
16 |
22 |
1 |
|
Louisville |
15 |
20 |
0 |
|
Air Force |
15 |
18 |
0 |
|
West Virginia |
15 |
21 |
1 |
|
Texas El Paso |
15 |
19 |
0 |
|
Virginia |
15 |
20 |
1 |
|
Georgia |
15 |
18 |
1 |
|
Troy |
14 |
14 |
0 |
|
Utah State |
14 |
17 |
0 |
|
Middle Tennessee |
14 |
16 |
0 |
|
Duke |
14 |
19 |
1 |
|
Northern Illinois |
14 |
14 |
1 |
|
Arkansas State |
14 |
16 |
0 |
|
Illinois |
14 |
21 |
0 |
|
SMU |
14 |
19 |
0 |
|
South Florida |
14 |
18 |
0 |
|
Wyoming |
14 |
18 |
2 |
|
Notre Dame |
14 |
24 |
2 |
|
Maryland |
14 |
21 |
0 |
|
Miami (Ohio) |
13 |
19 |
0 |
|
Florida International |
13 |
18 |
0 |
|
UAB |
13 |
15 |
2 |
|
New Mexico State |
13 |
18 |
1 |
|
Miami |
13 |
22 |
0 |
|
North Texas |
13 |
19 |
0 |
|
Florida State |
13 |
23 |
1 |
|
Ball State |
12 |
16 |
0 |
|
Louisiana-Monroe |
12 |
11 |
1 |
|
Buffalo |
12 |
19 |
1 |
|
Idaho |
12 |
19 |
0 |
|
Florida Atlantic |
12 |
15 |
0 |
|
Western Michigan |
12 |
15 |
2 |
|
Memphis |
12 |
22 |
1 |
|
Akron |
12 |
17 |
1 |
|
Bowling Green |
11 |
19 |
0 |
|
Louisiana-Lafayette |
11 |
19 |
0 |
|
Tulane |
11 |
23 |
0 |
|
Kent State |
11 |
17 |
2 |
|
Navy |
10 |
19 |
2 |
|
Northwestern |
10 |
23 |
0 |
|
Army |
10 |
18 |
0 |
|
Eastern Michigan |
9 |
17 |
1 |
|
W. Kentucky |
9 |
11 |
0 |
|
Fresno State |
7 |
24 |
1 |
|
South Alabama |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Massachusetts |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Texas St |
0 |
0 |
0 |
