In one of those almost-weekly big-time SEC showdowns, the 5-0 LSU Tigers visit the Swamp to play the 4-0 Florida Gators Saturday afternoon (3:30 pm ET, CBS).
LSU, coming off a couple of underwhelming performances in victories over Auburn and Towson State, were early three-point favorites over Gators, who are 3-1 ATS after blanking Kentucky 38-0.
Florida has won twice already as an underdog in 2012, but has lost 8 straight in that role dating back several seasons. [ Bet on LSU or Florida to win the SEC with the latest conference odds at 5Dimes ]
Power Rankings / Prediction: The Gators sit at No. 17 in the current NCAAF Power Rankings here at OddsShark, while the Tigers are at No. 16 on that chart. Math models have concluded that the Tigers will win this game 50-41.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Florida's No. 51-ranked offense (30.5 PPG) against a Tigers defense that ranks No. 9 at 12.6 PPG. The Gators passing attack has averaged 183 yards per game, more than the Tigers give up through the air (135.8 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Tigers feature the league's No. 15-rated road run defense, allowing 86 yards per game. Florida, meanwhile, ranks No. 40 in rushing offense at home.
In their last action, LSU was a 38-22 winner at home against Towson. The game had no spread or over-under wagering, as it involved a non-board school. Last time out, Towson could not slow down Odell Beckham, who managed 128 receiving yards in the Tigers 38-22 victory over the Tigers Saturday.
Florida won its last outing, a 38-0 result against Kentucky on September 22. Florida covered in that game as a 24-point favorite, while the 38 combined points took the game UNDER the total. Kentucky didn’t make much of a game of it last time out, losing to the Gators as Florida blasted them 38-0 in Week 4 action.
LSU Tigers Trends:
When playing in October are 9-1
When playing on grass are 10-0
After outgaining opponent are 10-0
When playing within the conference are 9-1
Florida Gators Trends:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 5-5
A few Tigers at Gators trends to consider:
LSU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
LSU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LSU's last 5 games when playing Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LSU's last 7 games when playing on the road against Florida
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida's last 6 games
Florida is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games when playing LSU
LSU home to South Carolina, Saturday, October 13
Florida at Vanderbilt, Saturday, October 13