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Florida State vs N.C. State

College football betting sharps have to tread carefully with the No. 15 Florida Seminoles, who travel to N.C. State as three-point favorites. The Seminoles are 6-1 but they’ve been a bit of a Jekyll-and-Hyde story this season. They were sharp as can be in five of their games but were horrible against Oklahoma and scuffled last week despite edging Boston College. Are they safe bets on the road against a solid Wolfpack team?

{B}Best Lines{/B} [ {URL=http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/florida-state-north-carolina-state-odds-o...}View all lines here{/URL} ]
Best Spread Betting FSU to Cover: {URL=http://affiliates.5dimes.com/tracking/Affiliate.asp?AffID=AF0002320&medi...}-3.5 at 5Dimes{/URL}
Best Spread Betting NC State to Cover: {URL=http://affiliate.sportsinteraction.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_...}+4 at SportsInteraction{/URL}
Best Total Betting OVER: {URL=http://affiliates.commissionaccount.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a...}57 at Sportsbook.com{/URL}
Best Total Betting UNDER: {URL=http://www.bodog.com/welcome/2761707/}60 at Bodog{/URL}

They key this week will be whether or not FSU quarterback Christian Ponder recovers from a bad performance last week. He threw three interceptions against a tough and very underrated Boston College defense. It was reminiscent of his brutal effort against Oklahoma in Florida State’s only loss this season. Only this time, his team bailed him out; Bert Reed ran 42 yards for a score to give the Seminoles the lead in the fourth quarter and they held on for a 24-19 win.

In theory, Ponder should bounce back against N.C. State. Against tougher offenses, the Wolfpack have laid eggs here and there. They got torched for 317 rushing yards against Virginia Tech on October 2 and East Carolina lit them up for 376 passing yards. The Seminoles are good enough to solve N.C. State’s suspect “D.”

The Wolfpack have a good aerial attack, averaging 312.6 passing yards per game. Russell Wilson has thrown an impressive 18 touchdown passes in seven games. But are the Wolfpack ready for an elite defense like Florida State’s?

The Seminoles are a top-20 team in almost every major defensive category this season. They’ve allowed 20 or more points in a game just once. They’re a tough matchup for a mistake-prone quarterback like Wilson. He’s completed just 57.8 per cent of his passes and has nine interceptions this season. Last week, East Carolina picked him off three times.

With two strong passing offenses taking the field, the over/under for this {URL="http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/florida-state-north-carolina-state-odds-o...}Thursday night matchup{/URL} is set at 57  ({URL=http://affiliates.commissionaccount.com/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a...}Sportsbook{/URL}). But is that number a bit high? The Seminoles are likely to solve N.C. State but, let’s remember, Oklahoma was the only team to score more than 20 on the Seminoles. Bettors might be wise to expect this game to fall UNDER the betting total.

As much as FSU looks like it has the edge on Thursday night, bettors beware; N.C. State is 8-0-1 against the spread over its last nine against the Seminoles.

Team records:
Florida State: 6-1 SU, 4-2 ATS
North Carolina State: 5-2 SU, 4-2 ATS

Florida State most recently:
When playing in October are 8-2
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 8-2

North Carolina State most recently:
When playing in October are 1-9
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Florida State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida State's last 5 games
Florida State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing North Carolina State
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Florida State's last 10 games on the road
North Carolina State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
North Carolina State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Carolina State's last 6 games when playing FSU
North Carolina State is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Florida State