The Oregon Ducks will look to clinch their spot in the Rose Bowl with a win at home in the Pac-12 Championship over the UCLA Bruins on Friday night.
At 6-6 and coming off of a 50-0 loss to USC, UCLA is representing the Pac-12 South since the Trojans are not bowl eligible. Oregon is 8-2 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in its last 10 games against UCLA.
Darron Thomas passed for 305 yards and four touchdowns in Oregon’s 49-21 won over Oregon State last Saturday.
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The Ducks sport records of 10-2 and 6-5-1 ATS heading into this matchup, while the Bruins sit at 6-5 and 4-7 ATS on the season. The over under records are 8-4 for the Ducks and 4-7 for the Bruins.
Betting Line: On the opening line for this matchup the Ducks sat as 29.5-point favorites but it is nopw 31.5 points at TopBet. The total, meanwhile, sat around 66 with the best over under betting value available at 5Dimes as of Friday.
Power Rankings / Prediction: This game matches up the No. 32 (Ducks) and the No. 75 (Bruins) teams in the league, according to our current NCAAF Power Rankings at OddsShark. A 54-23 result in favor of the Ducks is predicted by handicapping models.
How They Match Up:
The game also pits Oregon's No. 3-ranked offense, averaging 45.9 PPG, against a Bruins defense that ranks No. 87 this week at 30.8 PPG. The Ducks aerial game is averaging 219.6 yards per game, less than the Bruins secondary allows through the air, 233.8 YPG per game.
In comparing defenses, the Bruins own the league's No. 68-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 179.3 yards per game when on the road. Oregon, on the other hand, rates No. 5 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
In their last action, UCLA was a 50-0 loser on the road against Southern Cal. They failed to cover the 16–point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (50) was profitable news for UNDER bettors.
Oregon won its last outing, a 49-21 result against Oregon State on November 26. Oregon earned a push in that game as a 28-point favorite, while the 70 combined points took the game OVER the total.
UCLA Bruins Trends:
When playing in December are 3-7
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 5-5
Oregon Ducks Trends:
When playing in December are 5-4-1
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing within the conference are 9-1
A few Bruins at Ducks trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of UCLA's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of UCLA's last 5 games when playing Oregon
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of UCLA's last 5 games on the road
UCLA is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oregon
Oregon is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
Oregon is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Oregon's last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oregon's last 5 games