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LSU vs. Florida Preview: SEC Pick

LSU opened as a 7-point favorite over a Florida team that has looked better with Tyler Murphy at quarterback.

With Murphy under center, the Gators have bounced back from a loss to Miami, Fla., to win three straight. Murphy has thrown five touchdowns with only interception since replacing injured starter Jeff Driskell. But he’s facing by far his toughest test in Death Valley.

LSU’s offense is rolling behind quarterback Zach Mettenberger. The Tiger are averaging 45.5 points per game. Putting up those kind of numbers against a Florida defense considered among the nation’s best.

The Gators won last season’s meeting, 14-6, in Gainesville. They last won in Baton Rouge in 2009 but are just 2-6-1 ATS at home to the Gators going back to 1995.

View Florida Gators vs LSU Tigers Odds and Stats.

Bettors looking to side with the Tigers in this one found them as 5-point favorites at Bovada. The over under number was 47.5 at midweek over at BetOnline.

The power rankings show a disparity between these teams, with the Tigers rated this week at No. 13 and the Gators sitting at No. 28. It may or may not play a role in OddsShark score prediction models that turned out a 34-27 result in favor of the Tigers this week.

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Florida won its last outing, a 30-10 result against Arkansas on October 5. Florida covered in that game as a 12.5-point favorite, while the 40 combined points took the game UNDER the total. In their last game, LSU's aerial attack generated 340 yards and the Tigers came away with a 59-26 victory over Mississippi State at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field.

How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up LSU's No. 9-ranked offense (45.5 PPG) against a Gators defense that ranks No. 5 at 12.2 PPG. The Tigers passing attack has averaged 291.5 yards per game, more than the Gators give up through the air (152 YPG on average).

In comparing defenses, the Gators own the league's No. 67-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 175.33 yards per game when on the road. LSU, on the other hand, rates No. 33 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

A few Gators at Tigers trends to consider:
Florida is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Florida is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games

Next up:
Florida at Missouri, Saturday, October 19th
LSU at Mississippi, Saturday, October 19th