Horned Frogs take on Bears in Week 7 contest
TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears Odds
Old Southwest Conference rivals meet as 4-1 Texas Christian, which just got upset by Iowa State, visits Waco to play 3-1 Baylor Saturday night (7 pm ET).
The Frogs, who lost that crazy game to RG III and the Bears last year, were early seven-point underdogs vs. BU, which had last week off.
Betting Line: The Bears were listed as 6.5-point favorites at sportsbooks such as Bovada on the college football lines.
Power Rankings / Prediction: The Bears - Horned Frogs odds would favor the Horned Frogs if the lines were set according to power ranks. Baylor is rated No. 45 in our latest OddsShark poll, while the Horned Frogs sit at No. 17. Math models based on recent stats and predictive formulas point to a 51-49 win for the Horned Frogs.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Baylor's No. 2-ranked offense (54.2 PPG) against a Horned Frogs defense that ranks No. 10 at 13.2 PPG. The Bears passing attack has averaged 416.5 yards per game, more than the Horned Frogs give up through the air (181.2 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Horned Frogs feature the league's No. 6-rated road run defense, allowing 53.5 yards per game. Baylor, meanwhile, ranks No. 28 in rushing offense at home.
TCU was a 37-23 loser in their most recent outing at home against Iowa State. They failed to cover the 7-point spread as favorites, while the total score (60) made winners of OVER bettors. The Horned Frogs suffered a Week 6 loss against Iowa State in their last game, falling 37-23 at Amon Carter Stadium.
Baylor lost its last outing, a 70-63 result against West Virginia on September 29. Baylor covered in that game as a 11.5-point underdog, while the 133 combined points took the game OVER the total. In their last game, Baylor's aerial attack generated 581 yards but it was the Mountaineers coming away with a 70-63 victory over Baylor at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium.
TCU Horned Frogs Trends:
When playing in October are 8-2
When playing on turf are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing within the conference are 9-1
Baylor Bears Trends:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on turf are 8-2
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing within the conference are 6-4
A few Horned Frogs at Bears trends to consider:
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
TCU is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of TCU's last 5 games on the road
TCU is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Baylor is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baylor is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Baylor is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing TCU
TCU home to Texas Tech, Saturday, October 20
Baylor at Texas, Saturday, October 20