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Jonny Knows Picks: College Edition Week 12

Can't believe we're in Week 12. Sigh. 

Good news is there is still some money to be won in college football so let's get to it. I went 3-5 last week with my column picks and I'm now 45-39 on the season. 

Here goes...

Ohio State at Michigan State +22, 51.5 

  • Urban Meyer kicks ass in November – covers at 57 percent and his games go over at 60 percent
  • Buckeyes have won 62-3 in each of their last 2 games. 
  • Ohio State second in the nation in scoring and third in scoring defense 
  • Light rain, cold and high winds (20 mph) expected for this game
  • Think this will be a battle on the ground and the clock will keep running
  • Total opened as high as 61.5 and bet down heavily 

Pick:  UNDER

OK State at TCU -4.5, 70.5 

  • TCU is coming off a bye and running back Kyle Hicks is expected close to 100 percent TCU.
  • Oklahoma State’s run defense has been awful lately – 232 yds against over last 3 games
  • OK State has forced 21 turnovers, tops in the Big 12. TCU has a -2 turnover margin this season. 
  • Improvements in TCU’s pass defense over last 3 games – 239 yds against vs. 262/gm on the season.
  • TCU is one of the worst bets in college football this season at 2-7 ATS and 0-5 ATS at home 

Pick: TCU 

Florida at LSU -14.5, 39.5

  • Florida paid Presbyterian $500K and LSU paid South Alabama $1.5 million to get out of their games scheduled for this week
  • LSU has lost three games by a total of 17 points to teams in the top 16 this season 
  • Florida relies on its defense and it will be missing its three leading tacklers - linebackers Jarrad Davis (ankle), Alex Anzalone (arm), safety Marcus Maye (arm)
  • Appleby is back at QB for Florida with Del Rio injured and I think that helps 
  • LSU has covered five of the last six meetings 

Pick: OVER 

Oklahoma at WVU +3.5, 66.5 

  • Offense vs. Defense matchup. Oklahoma leads the Big 12 in total offense and scoring offense and West Virginia leads in total defense and scoring defense.
  • WVU has won eight straight games at home. Like that it’s a night game for WVU. 
  • Oklahoma has won 10 straight true road games 
  • West Virginia averages almost 500 yards per game and over 30 points per game.
  • Oklahoma’s defensive line has some key injuries 

Pick: West Virginia +3.5

USC at UCLA, +13, 52.5

  • This is the degenerate special game of the week. Last game on the board Saturday night. 
  • All the talk has been USC’s offense with freshman Sam Darnold going 6-1 since he took over
  • Averaging 36 ppg with Darnold at QB last seven games but the last six games played UNDER  
  • D-line for USC has been superb lately. Allowed just 102 yds rushing over last two games. 
  • UCLA ranks 127th out of 128 teams in FBS in rushing. Not sure how they’re going to generate enough offense to keep pace

Pick: UNDER

Other picks: 

Virginia Tech +1 
Wisconsin -28 (high winds in Purdue on Saturday. Boilers depend on pass game on offense and one of the worst rush defenses in the nation with 248 yds against per game.
Wash State-Colorado OVER 

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