NCAA Football Betting Weekend
The high-flying Oregon Ducks are 7-point favorites when they travel to Southern California this weekend to battle USC, with trends pointing to a USC cover.
The Trojans should play with a chip on their collective shoulder, as they’re anxious to prove that they could’ve been big players in the Pac-10 this season had they not been disqualified from postseason play by the NCAA.
They also benefit from industry-leading simulation models at PredictionMachine.com that point to a 58% likelihood the Trojans will cover the spread. The same math modelling suggests the game will go OVER the total, with nearly 60% of the 50,000 sim games played producing that result. [ Bet USC vs Oregon now at Bovada ]
Still, USC’s defense has been pretty shaky at times this season, allowing 400-plus yards per game. And no offense can exploit holes in a defense like Oregon can. The Ducks lead the country in points (55.1) and yards (572) per game. That means LaMichael James and company look like the right sportsbook pick. Some bettors may back the Trojans out of superstition, as No. 1 schools keep losing, but the matchup really seems to favor Oregon on paper.
Since USC is no slouch offensively either, ranking seventh in the country behind Matt Barkley’s stellar play, the over/under is an astronomical 71 points at most books for this one. Since Oregon alone can drop 50-plus points on any team every week, the OVER looks like a nice play here at Sportsbook.
Nebraska hosts undefeated Missouri in what could be another barnburner this weekend. Taylor Martinez had a game for the ages last week, leading the Cornhuskers to victory with 323 passing yards, 112 rushing yards, and five touchdowns. Martinez and Nebraska’s rushing attack could threaten Missouri’s perfection this week – especially since the game is in Nebraska, where the Cornhuskers are 7.5-point favorites at most books.
Missouri should score plenty as well with Blaine Gabbert leading the way. He had a 300-yard game of his own last week to lead the Tigers over then-undefeated Oklahoma. Betting OVER the 56-point total at SportsInteraction makes sense, Even if you think Nebraska will play shutdown “D” at home, don’t forget that they played in a 51-41 shootout last week.
The Iowa Hawkeyes get a shot of their own to spoil an undefeated team’s fun when they host Michigan State this Saturday. The oddsmakers aren’t respecting the Spartans’ record too much, making them 6.5-point underdogs on the road at Bovada.
Kirk Cousins has been the man for Michigan State this season, throwing for 14 scores, but the Hawkeyes can answer back with a quarterback playing just as well if not better. Ricky Stanzi has been as efficient as any signal-caller in the nation this year, completing 68.1 percent of his passes and throwing just two interceptions compared to 16 touchdown passes.
Since Iowa defends the pass better than Michigan State and is at home, the oddsmakers may be right to favor the Hawkeyes in this one. Don’t be surprised if Michigan State suffers its first loss of the year. Since both quarterbacks can put points on the board in a hurry, betting OVER the typical betting total of 50 points at SBG Global may be the right choice.