Orange Bowl betting preview

In the ultimate David-vs.-Goliath match-up of this bowl season 12-1 Northern Illinois, champions of the MAC, challenge 11-2 Florida State, championship of the ACC, in the Orange Bowl New Year's Day night in South Florida (8:30 pm ET, ESPN).

The early Orange Bowl odds were listing the Seminoles, who are averaging 40 PPG this season, as 13-point favorites over the Huskies, who are averaging 41 PPG.

Underdogs have ruled the Orange Bowl lately, going 7-2 ATS in nine years. But beware FSU, as the Noles are 8-0-1 ATS in their past 9 bowl games. Also of note for bettors, the UNDER is 5-1 in past 6 Orange Bowls. [ More Orange Bowl betting stats, trends and picks ]

View Northern Illinois vs Florida State Odds and Stats.

Betting Line: Florida State were sitting as 13.5-point favorites earlier in the week at Bovada. The total was 58.5 in early betting at 5Dimes.


Florida State Bowl History

Year Bowl Team1 Score Team2 Score Team2Line ATS win
1995 Orange Bowl Florida State 31 Notre Dame 26 10 NOTRD
1996 Sugar Bowl Florida 52 Florida State 20 3 FLA
1997 Sugar Bowl Ohio State 14 Florida State 31 -7 FLAST
1998 Fiesta Bowl Florida State 16 Tennessee 23 5.5 TENN
1999 Sugar Bowl Virginia Tech 29 Florida State 46 -6 FLAST
2000 Orange Bowl Florida State 2 Oklahoma 13 11.5 OKLA
2001 Gator Bowl Virginia Tech 17 Florida State 30 0 FLAST
2002 Sugar Bowl Georgia 26 Florida State 13 7.5 GEORGI
2003 Orange Bowl Miami 16 Florida State 14 -1.5 MIAMI
2004 Gator Bowl West Virginia 18 Florida State 30 -9.5 FLAST
2005 Orange Bowl Florida State 23 Penn State 26 -9 FLAST
2006 Emerald Bowl Florida State 44 UCLA 27 -3.5 FLAST
2007 Music City Bowl Florida State 28 Kentucky 35 -7 Push
2008 Champs Sports Bowl Wisconsin 13 Florida State 42 -7 FLAST
2009 Gator Bowl Florida State 33 West Virginia 21 -2.5 FLAST
2010 Chick-Fil-A Bowl Florida State 26 South Carolina 17 -2.5 FLAST
2011 Champs Sports Bowl Notre Dame 14 Florida State 18 -3 FLAST

Northern Illinois Bowl History

Year Bowl Team1 Score Team2 Score Team2Line ATS win
2004 Silican Valley Bowl Troy 21 Northern Illinois 34 -1 N.ILL
2005 MAC Championship Akron 31 Northern Illinois 30 -13 AKRON
2006 Poinsettia Bowl Northern Illinois 7 TCU 37 -12.5 TCU
2008 Independence Bowl Northern Illinois 10 Louisiana Tech 17 -3 LATECH
2009 International Bowl Northern Illinois 3 South Florida 27 -6.5 S.FLA
2010 Humanitarian Bowl Northern Illinois 40 Fresno State 17 1.5 N.ILL
2011 Bowl Arkansas State 20 Northern Illinois 38 0 N.ILL

How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Florida State's No. 14-ranked offense (39.9 PPG) against a Huskies defense that ranks No. 18 at 19 PPG. The Seminoles passing attack has averaged 262.9 yards per game, more than the Huskies give up through the air (217.7 YPG on average).

Defensively, the Huskies feature the league's No. 54-rated road run defense, allowing 162.8 yards per game. Florida State, meanwhile, ranks No. 16 in rushing offense at home.

Northern Illinois won its last outing, a 44-37 result against Kent State on November 30. Northern Illinois failed to cover in that game as a 7.5-point favorite, while the 81 combined points took the game OVER the total. Kent State was unable to contain Jordan Lynch in its last action Friday and the result was a 44-37 Week 14 loss against the Huskies.

Florida State won its last outing, a 21-15 result against Georgia Tech on December 1. Florida State failed to cover in that game as a 15.5-point favorite, while the 36 combined points took the game UNDER the total. In their last game, the Seminoles were Week 14 winners, coming out on top of the Yellow Jackets by a score of 21-15.

Northern Illinois Huskies Trends:
When playing in January are 1-1
When playing on grass are 2-8
After outgaining opponent are 10-0
When an underdog on the road are 3-7

Florida State Seminoles Trends:
When playing in January are 5-5
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When favored at home are 8-2

A few Huskies at Seminoles trends to consider:
Northern Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Florida State is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
Florida State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games


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