Oregon big road chalk at Virginia
Oregon opened as a 23.5-point road favorite against Virginia and the role of road chalk has suited the Ducks just fine lately.
The Ducks have covered seven straight games as a road favorite and are 32-20 against the spread in road games over the past 10 years.
The Cavaliers’ defense managed to slow down BYU in a 19-16 comeback victory in Week 1. Holding Oregon to 16 points would be a remarkable accomplishment.
In new head coach Mark Helfrich’s debut, the Ducks hung 66 on overmatched Nicholls State. The combination of quarterback Marcus Mariotta and De’Anthony Thomas give Oregon a pair of weapons that Virginia may not have an answer for.
The Cavs are 3-6 against the spread as home underdogs under coach Mike London.
Oregon is on a 8-1 ATS run as a favorite.
Power Rankings / Prediction: The game pits the Cavaliers, currently No. 80 in our OddsShark NCAAF Power Rankings, against the Ducks, who rate No. 41 in the latest survey. Meanwhile, math and handicapping models run on this game predict a 59-29 victory for the Ducks.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Virginia's No. 89-ranked offense (19 PPG) against a Ducks defense that ranks No. 8 at 3 PPG. The Cavaliers passing attack has averaged 114 yards per game, less than the Ducks give up through the air (256 YPG on average).
Oregon was a 66-3 winner in its last match at home against Nicholls State. They covered the 58.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score of 69 sent OVER bettors to the payout window. In their last game, Oregon got a 128-yard performance from De'Anthony Thomas as a key part of its 66-3 win over Nicholls State.
In their last action, Virginia was a 19-16 winner at home against BYU. They covered the 2.5-point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (35) was profitable news for UNDER bettors. The Cavaliers grabbed a Week 1 victory over the Cougars in their last game, winning 19-16 at Scott Stadium.
Oregon Ducks Trends:
When playing in September are 9-1
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing outside the conference are 8-2
Virginia Cavaliers Trends:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outgained are 2-8
When playing outside the conference are 6-4
A few Ducks at Cavaliers trends to consider:
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Oregon is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Virginia's last 6 games
Virginia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Virginia is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
Virginia is 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 games
Oregon home to Tennessee, Saturday, September 14
Virginia home to VMI, Saturday, September 21