Point spread favors Bulldogs in battle with Wolf Pack
|Nevada Wolf Pack||Fresno State Bulldogs|
Fresno State is 7-0 and ranked No. 16 in this week's BCS standings. And yet the Bulldogs are only 2-5 ATS on the season, even after winning at San Diego State in overtime Saturday 35-28, covering as six-point favorites.
FSU will try to stay perfect this week when it hosts 3-5 Nevada Saturday night (10:30 pm ET, ESPNU).
The Bulldogs lead the Mountain West West by a game over UNLV and San Jose State. The Wolf Pack, on the other hand, needs to win three of its last four games to become bowl-eligible.
As of early this week Fresno State, which halted a four-game losing streak against Nevada with a 52-36 victory last year, was favored by 21 points over the Pack.
They will face the 3-5 Wolf Pack, who own a 3-5 ATS mark on the season. In totals betting, the Bulldogs are 4-3 favoring the UNDER so far this season while the Wolf Pack are 4-4 favoring the OVER.
Bettors looking to side with the Bulldogs in this one found them as -23-point favorites at GTbets.eu. The over under number was slated to open a short time later.
The game pits the Bulldogs, currently No. 14 in our OddsShark NCAAF Power Rankings, against the Wolf Pack, who rate No. 91 in the latest survey. Meanwhile, math and handicapping models run on this game predict a 45-24 victory for the Bulldogs.
Nevada was a 27-22 loser in its last match at home against UNLV. They failed to cover the 6.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score of 49 sent UNDER bettors to the payout window. The Bulldogs grabbed a Week 9 victory over the Aztecs in their last game, winning 35-28 at Qualcomm Stadium.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Fresno State's No. 7-ranked offense (44.29 PPG) against a Wolf Pack defense that ranks No. 110 at 36.25 PPG. The Bulldogs passing attack has averaged 371.86 yards per game, more than the Wolf Pack give up through the air (226.5 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the Wolf Pack own the league's No. 124-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 346 yards per game when on the road. Fresno State, on the other hand, rates No. 103 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
A few Wolf Pack at Bulldogs trends to consider:
Nevada is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games
Nevada is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games
Nevada is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Nevada is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Fresno State is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games
Fresno State is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Fresno State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Fresno State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Nevada at Colorado State, Saturday, November 9th
Fresno State at Wyoming, Saturday, November 9th