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Point spread favors Fighting Irish in battle with Midshipmen

Navy Midshipmen Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Navy's Midshipmen just pulled an upset of Pittsburgh to get to 4-3 on the season.

The Middies go looking for another, bigger shocker this Saturday when they hit South Bend to challenge 6-2 Notre Dame (3:30 pm ET, NBC).

Navy is 5-2 ATS this season after its victory over the Panthers as four-point underdogs.

The Irish, meanwhile, have won three in a row both SU and ATS after beating one of the other service academies, and another option team, Air Force, last week.

These two programs have met every season since 1927. Notre Dame had beaten the Middies 43 times in a row, but Navy has won three of the last six meetings, including two of the last three played in South Bend.

In the early betting the Irish, who beat the Middies in Ireland 50-10 last year, were favored by 17 points over Navy.

The Irish are just 1-6 ATS at home to Navy since 1997 and also 1-5 ATS in their past six as double-digit home favorite.

The Fighting Irish are 6-2 so far on the season, and 3-4-1 ATS vs. the number. The Midshipmen, meanwhile, are 4-3 and 5-2 ATS. Over under bettors have seen Notre Dame go 4-4 and the Midshipmen go 2-5 on the totals.

View Navy Midshipmen vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Odds and Stats.

The visitors opened as 17-point underdogs in this one at 5Dimes and most sportsbooks tracked here at OddsShark. The total was 48.5 midweek at Bovada.

The game pits the Fighting Irish, currently No. 48 in our OddsShark NCAAF Power Rankings, against the Midshipmen, who rate No. 89 in the latest survey. Meanwhile, math and handicapping models run on this game predict a 30-28 victory for the Fighting Irish.

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Navy was a 24-21 winner in its last match at home against Pittsburgh. They covered the 4-point spread as underdogs, while the total score of 45 sent UNDER bettors to the payout window.

How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Notre Dame's No. 73-ranked offense (27.88 PPG) against a Midshipmen defense that ranks No. 54 at 24.57 PPG. The Fighting Irish passing attack has averaged 250 yards per game, more than the Midshipmen give up through the air (204.43 YPG on average).

Defensively, the Midshipmen feature the league's No. 84-rated road run defense, allowing 198 yards per game. Notre Dame, meanwhile, ranks No. 88 in rushing offense at home.

A few Midshipmen at Fighting Irish trends to consider:
Navy is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Navy is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Navy's last 6 games
Navy is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Notre Dame is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Notre Dame is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Notre Dame's last 24 games
Notre Dame is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home

Next up:
Navy at Hawaii, Saturday, November 9th
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, Saturday, November 9th