Florida State vs Miami Football Pick
The Miami Hurricanes have played two Top 10 teams in 2012 and gotten trampled by Kansas State and Notre Dame by a combined score of 93-16.
Can they do better against hated rivals Flroida State, the No. 13 ranked school in America?
The road team has covered the spread in six straight meetings, which would mean FSU covers 21 points (best Miami line was at Bovada Friday).
The Canes bring a 4-3 record (4-3 ATS) to the college football odds 8 battle against the 6-1 Seminoles, who are 3-3 ATS against the spread. Over under bettors have seen Miami go 4-2 so far and the Seminoles go 4-2.
Power Rankings / Prediction: The Power Rankings at OddsShark have the No. 2-rated Seminoles taking on the No. 97-rated Hurricanes in this contest. Handicapping models indicate a 64-25 win for the Seminoles on Saturday.
How They Match Up:
The game also pits Miami's No. 63-ranked offense, averaging 27.9 PPG, against a Seminoles defense that ranks No. 4 this week at 11.6 PPG. The Hurricanes aerial game is averaging 296.9 yards per game, more than the Seminoles secondary allows through the air, 147.1 YPG per game.
Defensively, the Seminoles feature the league's No. 14-rated road run defense, allowing 95.5 yards per game. Miami, meanwhile, ranks No. 82 in rushing offense at home.
Florida State was a 51-7 winner in their most recent outing at home against Boston College. They covered the 29-point spread as favorites, while the total score (58) made winners of OVER bettors. In Florida State's last outing, EJ Manuel threw for 439 yards to lead the Seminoles over Boston College 51-7 at Doak Campbell Stadium.
In their last action, Miami was a 18-14 loser at home against North Carolina. They covered the 7.5-point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (32) was profitable news for UNDER bettors. In their last game, the Hurricanes were Week 7 losers coming out on the wrong end of 18-14 score against North Carolina.
Florida State Seminoles Trends:
When playing in October are 7-3
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing within the conference are 8-2
Miami Hurricanes Trends:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing within the conference are 6-4
A few Seminoles at Hurricanes trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida State's last 5 games on the road
Florida State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Florida State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida State's last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Florida State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing at home against Florida State
Miami is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Florida State
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Florida State
Florida State home to Duke, Saturday, October 27
Miami home to Virginia Tech, Thursday, November 1