In the battle for the Golden Boot 9-2 LSU, still with a faint hope of playing in the SEC title game, visits 4-7 Arkansas Friday afternoon (2:30 pm ET, CBS).
The Tigers, who need a victory and help elsewhere to win the West Division, were early 12-point favorites over the disappointing Hogs, who will miss playing in a bowl game this season.
Betting Line: The Tigers were listed as 13.5-point favorites on the opening NCAA football line at 5Dimes and most sportsbooks tracked by OddsShark. The total was moving off the number 51, which it had been early in the week over at .
Power Rankings / Prediction: This game matches up the No. 90 (Razorbacks) and the No. 6 (Tigers) teams in the league, according to our current NCAAF Power Rankings at OddsShark. A 40-19 result in favor of the Tigers is predicted by handicapping models.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Arkansas's No. 90-ranked offense (24.5 PPG) against a Tigers defense that ranks No. 12 at 17.3 PPG. The Razorbacks passing attack has averaged 296.3 yards per game, more than the Tigers give up through the air (179.8 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Tigers feature the league's No. 25-rated road run defense, allowing 132 yards per game. Arkansas, meanwhile, ranks No. 104 in rushing offense at home.
In their last action, LSU was a 41-35 winner at home against Mississippi. They failed to cover the 18-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (76) was profitable news for OVER bettors. The Tigers grabbed a Week 12 victory over the Rebels in their last game, winning 41-35 at Tiger Stadium.
In their last action, Arkansas was a 45-14 loser on the road against Mississippi State. They failed to cover the 4.5-point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (59) was profitable news for OVER bettors. Arkansas didn’t make much of a game of it last time out, losing to the Bulldogs as Mississippi State blasted them 45-14 in Week 12 action.
LSU Tigers Trends:
When playing in November are 8-2
When playing on turf are 7-3
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing within the conference are 7-3
Arkansas Razorbacks Trends:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 4-6
A few Tigers at Razorbacks trends to consider:
LSU is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games
LSU is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LSU's last 6 games when playing Arkansas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LSU's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arkansas's last 6 games when playing LSU
Arkansas is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home
Arkansas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against LSU
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arkansas's last 10 games